Daily Papers

We introduce the Ignition Index (I), a validated scalar metric that operationalizes Global Workspace Theory's (GWT) all-or-none ignition prediction in transformer language models. The metric fits a four-parameter sigmoid to per-layer linear probe accuracy as a function of input signal strength, extracting steepness parameter beta-hat: high values indicate abrupt, ignition-like transitions; low values indicate graded build-up. Across 11 models spanning five architecture families, shuffled-label controls demonstrate 9.6-fold selectivity for genuine linguistic structure over spurious probe capacity (p < 0.001, Mann-Whitney U-test). We find: (1) Feedforward transformers exceed SSMs by 89% in aggregate beta-hat (p < 1e-13, Cohen's d = 0.52), with Mamba exhibiting near-linear profiles consistent with absent global broadcast. (2) Huginn-3.5B exhibits 2.12-fold higher ignition along its iteration axis than its depth axis, demonstrating that recurrent architectures manifest workspace-like transitions along the recurrence dimension. (3) Pythia-410M shows a PELT-detected phase transition at training step 256 (+67%), preceding induction-head formation. (4) Hypotheses linking ignition to model scale and signal strength were not confirmed, suggesting transformer architectures may saturate available ignition mechanisms. The Ignition Index provides the first validated quantitative bridge between GWT's dynamical predictions and mechanistic interpretability, with 9.6-fold measurement selectivity and architecture-level discriminability not previously characterized in the scaling literature. Code: https://github.com/saman-rahbar/ignition-index

Thermonuclear flame fronts in Type Ia supernovae develop hydrodynamic instabilities that generate turbulent mesoscale flow and substantial local thermodynamic variability. Recent work by Brooker+25 demonstrated systematic shortening of fuel ignition times near Rayleigh--Taylor unstable deflagration fronts, but the physical origin remained unclear. We investigate the thermodynamic evolution of fuel near the flame front using multidimensional simulations and Lagrangian tracer-particle analysis, focusing on flame-driven expansion and ignition-time variability in partially degenerate carbon--oxygen plasma. Tracer trajectories show that the most strongly preconditioned fuel parcels near the flame front, which form a minority of the fuel layer, undergo approximately pressure-constrained expansion with modest density reductions and temperature increases of approx 2times10^{8}~K to approx7times10^{8}~K (approx13 to 63 per cent above the unperturbed fuel temperature) between the low- and high-density models. Despite moderate thermodynamic perturbations, the strong temperature sensitivity of carbon ignition produces substantial shortening of ignition times. The results indicate a two-step mechanism: flame thermal expansion perturbs the fuel away from hydrostatic equilibrium, while restoration of pressure balance by weak acoustic waves redistributes internal energy from degenerate to thermal components. This raises the fuel temperature and produces localized thermodynamic preconditioning. These results suggest that unsteady thermonuclear flames can shorten ignition times ahead of the flame, influencing fuel over distances larger than the laminar flame thickness. Whether this preconditioning leads to secondary ignition or contributes to deflagration-to-detonation transition remains untested here, as nuclear burning is disabled in the analyzed fuel.

Prediction of wildfire occurrence is a rare-event problem compounded by spatial heterogeneity and temporal distribution shift, as fire occurrences are vastly outnumbered by non-occurrences, and predictor--fire relationship varies across space and time. Models trained on historical fire data may perform poorly under new conditions and require adaptation to the target distribution before operational use. We propose PyroAdapt, a pretrain--retrieve--rank framework that adapts a pretrained model to target conditions by retrieving historical locations with similar conditions and fine-tuning on the retrievals through risk ranking. For spatial adaptation, we condition risk on terrain, ecoregion embeddings, and fire rates, accounting for spatial context in the retrieval, and learn risk ordering from same-day fire--nonfire cell pairs. We compare direct ranking, residual pairwise DPO (RDPO), and selective ranking through a unified score-gap formulation that characterizes their gradient allocation. Over California (discretized into 666 0.25x0.25 grid cells), these objectives raise daily average precision from 21.62% for continued focal fine-tuning to 24.35--24.57%, and Top5% recall from 18.70% to 22.11--22.79%. Under a fixed daily detection budget of 34 cells (5% area), selective ranking captures 344 additional positive cell--days. For fires in the top 5%/10%/20% of dry matter consumption, selective ranking raises recall by 39.70/28.18/20.50 percentage points, respectively. Furthermore, rolling evaluations over Yosemite show that the gains from ranking persist under temporal distribution shift. Together, these results show that PyroAdapt prioritizes the most fire-prone locations under a daily budget constraint and detects more extreme fire events.