Daily Papers

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) and reasoning frameworks have opened new possibilities for improving the perspective -taking capabilities of autonomous agents. However, tasks that involve active perception, collaborative reasoning, and perspective taking (understanding what another agent can see or knows) pose persistent challenges for current LLM-based systems. This study investigates the potential of structured examples derived from transformed solution graphs generated by the Fast Downward planner to improve the performance of LLM-based agents within a ReAct framework. We propose a structured solution-processing pipeline that generates three distinct categories of examples: optimal goal paths (G-type), informative node paths (E-type), and step-by-step optimal decision sequences contrasting alternative actions (L-type). These solutions are further converted into ``thought-action'' examples by prompting an LLM to explicitly articulate the reasoning behind each decision. While L-type examples slightly reduce clarification requests and overall action steps, they do not yield consistent improvements. Agents are successful in tasks requiring basic attentional filtering but struggle in scenarios that required mentalising about occluded spaces or weighing the costs of epistemic actions. These findings suggest that structured examples alone are insufficient for robust perspective-taking, underscoring the need for explicit belief tracking, cost modelling, and richer environments to enable socially grounded collaboration in LLM-based agents.

End-to-end autonomous driving systems built on Vision Language Models (VLMs) have shown significant promise, yet their reliance on autoregressive architectures introduces some limitations for real-world applications. The sequential, token-by-token generation process of these models results in high inference latency and cannot perform bidirectional reasoning, making them unsuitable for dynamic, safety-critical environments. To overcome these challenges, we introduce ViLaD, a novel Large Vision Language Diffusion (LVLD) framework for end-to-end autonomous driving that represents a paradigm shift. ViLaD leverages a masked diffusion model that enables parallel generation of entire driving decision sequences, significantly reducing computational latency. Moreover, its architecture supports bidirectional reasoning, allowing the model to consider both past and future simultaneously, and supports progressive easy-first generation to iteratively improve decision quality. We conduct comprehensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset, where ViLaD outperforms state-of-the-art autoregressive VLM baselines in both planning accuracy and inference speed, while achieving a near-zero failure rate. Furthermore, we demonstrate the framework's practical viability through a real-world deployment on an autonomous vehicle for an interactive parking task, confirming its effectiveness and soundness for practical applications.

Robot learning has advanced by scaling demonstration datasets and model capacity; however, deploying a new robot embodiment or task typically necessitates a dedicated teleoperation corpus. The resulting policies remain bounded by their imitation distributions, limiting generalization and continual self-improvement. We introduce RAX (Robot Agent eXploration), an open-source framework for robot agents centered on scaling exploration: enabling agents to improve by acquiring online experience and synthesizing executable programs. In RAX, a general-purpose coding agent generates robot control code, operating without action demonstration data, hand-engineered action primitives, or value-function guidance. Through online exploration, the agent identifies decision sequences that achieve task goals and compiles them into modular programs encapsulating the full perception-planning-control loop. Using RAX, we present a systematic multi-embodiment study on scaling online exploration across precision and long-horizon manipulation tasks using single-arm, bimanual, dexterous, mobile, and humanoid systems in simulation and on real robots. Generalization performance on unseen environments improves consistently as exploration scales. In simulation, RAX outperforms top baseline models by +37.4% on average. On real robots, RAX autonomously learns memory-dependent, articulated, high-precision, deformable, and long-horizon mobile manipulation tasks without human demonstrations, continually improving performance by composing verified skills from prior exploration sessions. As exploration scales, we observe emergent capabilities including active perception, error recovery, safety guardrails, and human-robot collaboration. We open-source RAX as a generalist robot-agent platform in which new robot embodiments are integrated through their APIs alone, without teleoperated data collection or policy training.

Large language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT and GPT-4, are versatile and can solve different tasks due to their emergent ability and generalizability. However, LLMs sometimes lack domain-specific knowledge to perform tasks, which would also cause hallucination during inference. In some previous works, additional modules like graph neural networks (GNNs) are trained on retrieved knowledge from external knowledge bases, aiming to mitigate the problem of lacking domain-specific knowledge. However, incorporating additional modules: 1) would need retraining additional modules when encountering novel domains; 2) would become a bottleneck since LLMs' strong abilities are not fully utilized for retrieval. In this paper, we propose a paradigm, termed Knowledge Solver (KSL), to teach LLMs to search for essential knowledge from external knowledge bases by harnessing their own strong generalizability. Specifically, we design a simple yet effective prompt to transform retrieval into a multi-hop decision sequence, which empowers LLMs with searching knowledge ability in zero-shot manner. Additionally, KSL is able to provide complete retrieval paths and therefore increase explainability of LLMs' reasoning processes. We conduct experiments on three datasets: CommonsenseQA, OpenbookQA, and MedQA-USMLE, and found that our approach improves LLM baseline performance by a relatively large margin.

Despite the rapid progress of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), their ability to perform reliable visual grounding in high-stakes clinical software environments remains underexplored. Existing GUI benchmarks largely focus on isolated, single-step grounding queries, overlooking the sequential, workflow-driven reasoning required in real-world medical interfaces, where tasks evolve across independent steps and dynamic interface states. We introduce MedSPOT, a workflow-aware sequential grounding benchmark for clinical GUI environments. Unlike prior benchmarks that treat grounding as a standalone prediction task, MedSPOT models procedural interaction as a sequence of structured spatial decisions. The benchmark comprises 216 task-driven videos with 597 annotated keyframes, in which each task consists of 2 to 3 interdependent grounding steps within realistic medical workflows. This design captures interface hierarchies, contextual dependencies, and fine-grained spatial precision under evolving conditions. To evaluate procedural robustness, we propose a strict sequential evaluation protocol that terminates task assessment upon the first incorrect grounding prediction, explicitly measuring error propagation in multi-step workflows. We further introduce a comprehensive failure taxonomy, including edge bias, small-target errors, no prediction, near miss, far miss, and toolbar confusion, to enable systematic diagnosis of model behavior in clinical GUI settings. By shifting evaluation from isolated grounding to workflow-aware sequential reasoning, MedSPOT establishes a realistic and safety-critical benchmark for assessing multimodal models in medical software environments. Code and data are available at: https://github.com/Tajamul21/MedSPOT.

In high-stakes domains such as finance, critical information evolves through multi-party interaction. Recovering these changes and their sources is fundamental to reliable speech understanding. Existing speech benchmarks focus on transcription, local understanding, and turn-level state prediction, leaving joint decision evolution across speakers insufficiently evaluated. We introduce DecisionTraceBench, a speech state-tracking benchmark for Decision-Critical Information State Tracking (DCIST). It jointly evaluates decision event sequences, speaker attribution, scope, and temporal evidence, using trajectory-level F1 to measure complete event-chain recovery. Our dataset comprises Chinese financial dialogues involving two to four speakers, with 100.39 hours of synthetic audio and 8.61 hours of human-performed recordings. On a fixed cohort of human-performed recordings, five cascaded systems and two direct-audio models achieve DCIST scores of 5.73% to 21.35%. Ablations with speaker-labeled reference scripts and no temporal localization requirements yield a maximum score of only 38.72%. Audio perturbation experiments further show that overall transcription error rates do not adequately reflect complete trajectory recovery. These findings reveal limitations in jointly understanding information provenance and state evolution, providing a benchmark for evaluating decision-process understanding and decision traceability in high-stakes speech applications.

Online decision-making faces a tension between efficient inference and long-horizon reasoning. Value-based methods rely on short-horizon bootstrapping that limits the propagation of long-term information, while trajectory optimization methods plan explicitly but must solve a high-dimensional optimization problem at every decision step. We propose Generative Trajectory Planning (GTP), a model-based framework that addresses this tension by learning a generative model as a proposal distribution over action sequences. Instead of optimizing sequences from scratch, GTP samples candidate sequences from a diffusion prior and refines them using learned dynamics, reward, and value models, enabling efficient trajectory-level reasoning. Across continuous control and long-horizon manipulation tasks, GTP matches or exceeds state-of-the-art model-free, diffusion-policy, and model-based baselines, and remains stable in regimes where strong baselines degrade. Our results suggest that generative models are best understood not as policies, but as structured proposal distributions for planning, offering a new perspective on how to integrate generative modeling with model-based decision-making.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is rapidly reaching and surpassing human-level control capabilities. However, state-of-the-art RL algorithms often require timesteps and reaction times significantly faster than human capabilities, which is impractical in real-world settings and typically necessitates specialized hardware. Such speeds are difficult to achieve in the real world and often requires specialized hardware. We introduce Sequence Reinforcement Learning (SRL), an RL algorithm designed to produce a sequence of actions for a given input state, enabling effective control at lower decision frequencies. SRL addresses the challenges of learning action sequences by employing both a model and an actor-critic architecture operating at different temporal scales. We propose a "temporal recall" mechanism, where the critic uses the model to estimate intermediate states between primitive actions, providing a learning signal for each individual action within the sequence. Once training is complete, the actor can generate action sequences independently of the model, achieving model-free control at a slower frequency. We evaluate SRL on a suite of continuous control tasks, demonstrating that it achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art algorithms while significantly reducing actor sample complexity. To better assess performance across varying decision frequencies, we introduce the Frequency-Averaged Score (FAS) metric. Our results show that SRL significantly outperforms traditional RL algorithms in terms of FAS, making it particularly suitable for applications requiring variable decision frequencies. Additionally, we compare SRL with model-based online planning, showing that SRL achieves superior FAS while leveraging the same model during training that online planners use for planning.

The creation of manipulated multimedia content involving human characters has reached in the last years unprecedented realism, calling for automated techniques to expose synthetically generated faces in images and videos. This work explores the analysis of spatio-temporal texture dynamics of the video signal, with the goal of characterizing and distinguishing real and fake sequences. We propose to build a binary decision on the joint analysis of multiple temporal segments and, in contrast to previous approaches, to exploit the textural dynamics of both the spatial and temporal dimensions. This is achieved through the use of Local Derivative Patterns on Three Orthogonal Planes (LDP-TOP), a compact feature representation known to be an important asset for the detection of face spoofing attacks. Experimental analyses on state-of-the-art datasets of manipulated videos show the discriminative power of such descriptors in separating real and fake sequences, and also identifying the creation method used. Linear Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are used which, despite the lower complexity, yield comparable performance to previously proposed deep models for fake content detection.

JEPA-style latent world models can use Euclidean distance to a goal latent as the cost for model-predictive control (MPC). Strong decoding of task variables, however, does not guarantee that this particular cost ranks candidate action sequences by real task progress. We call the latter property decision-metric alignment. We introduce Plan-Real Spearman, which measures latent--real rank agreement on random plans, and CEM-stage Spearman, which measures the same agreement as cross-entropy-method (CEM) search concentrates its proposal. We analyze sufficient conditions under which latent distance preserves real-cost rankings, identifying encoder distortion, terminal rollout error, and candidate margins as the controlling quantities. Guided by the observed empirical alignment gap, DA-LeWM augments LeWM with inverse-dynamics and demonstration-conditioned goal-action heads. Across all our experiments, DA-LeWM accelerates convergence and achieves higher online success than LeWM, while probe scores remain similar. These results show that action-conditioned objectives improve the geometry used by Euclidean-cost, CEM-based latent MPC.

In large language models (LLMs), each block operates on the residual stream to map input token sequences to output token distributions. However, most of the interpretability literature focuses on internal latent representations, leaving token-space dynamics underexplored. The high dimensionality and categoricity of token distributions hinder their analysis, as standard statistical descriptors are not suitable. We show that the entropy of logit-lens predictions overcomes these issues. In doing so, it provides a per-layer scalar, permutation-invariant metric. We introduce Entropy-Lens to distill the token-space dynamics of the residual stream into a low-dimensional signal. We call this signal the entropy profile. We apply our method to a variety of model sizes and families, showing that (i) entropy profiles uncover token prediction dynamics driven by expansion and pruning strategies; (ii) these dynamics are family-specific and invariant under depth rescaling; (iii) they are characteristic of task type and output format; (iv) these strategies have unequal impact on downstream performance, with the expansion strategy usually being more critical. Ultimately, our findings further enhance our understanding of the residual stream, enabling a granular assessment of how information is processed across model depth.

Keypoint-based matching is a fundamental component of modern 3D vision systems, such as Structure-from-Motion (SfM) and SLAM. Most existing learning-based methods are trained on image pairs, a paradigm that fails to explicitly optimize for the long-term trackability of keypoints across sequences under challenging viewpoint and illumination changes. In this paper, we reframe keypoint detection as a sequential decision-making problem. We introduce TraqPoint, a novel, end-to-end Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework designed to optimize the Track-quality (Traq) of keypoints directly on image sequences. Our core innovation is a track-aware reward mechanism that jointly encourages the consistency and distinctiveness of keypoints across multiple views, guided by a policy gradient method. Extensive evaluations on sparse matching benchmarks, including relative pose estimation and 3D reconstruction, demonstrate that TraqPoint significantly outperforms some state-of-the-art (SOTA) keypoint detection and description methods.The code will be available at https://github.com/xiaomi-research/traqpoint.

Parametric computer-aided design (CAD) is a standard paradigm used to design manufactured objects, where a 3D shape is represented as a program supported by the CAD software. Despite the pervasiveness of parametric CAD and a growing interest from the research community, currently there does not exist a dataset of realistic CAD models in a concise programmatic form. In this paper we present the Fusion 360 Gallery, consisting of a simple language with just the sketch and extrude modeling operations, and a dataset of 8,625 human design sequences expressed in this language. We also present an interactive environment called the Fusion 360 Gym, which exposes the sequential construction of a CAD program as a Markov decision process, making it amendable to machine learning approaches. As a use case for our dataset and environment, we define the CAD reconstruction task of recovering a CAD program from a target geometry. We report results of applying state-of-the-art methods of program synthesis with neurally guided search on this task.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized decision-making by breaking down complex problems into more manageable language sequences referred to as ``thoughts''. An effective thought design should consider three key perspectives: performance, efficiency, and flexibility. However, existing thought can at most exhibit two of these attributes. To address these limitations, we introduce a novel thought prompting approach called ``Everything of Thoughts'' (XoT) to defy the law of ``Penrose triangle of existing thought paradigms. XoT leverages pretrained reinforcement learning and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to incorporate external domain knowledge into thoughts, thereby enhancing LLMs' capabilities and enabling them to generalize to unseen problems efficiently. Through the utilization of the MCTS-LLM collaborative thought revision framework, this approach autonomously produces high-quality comprehensive cognitive mappings with minimal LLM interactions. Additionally, XoT empowers LLMs to engage in unconstrained thinking, allowing for flexible cognitive mappings for problems with multiple solutions.

Training LLMs as interactive agents for multi-turn decision-making remains challenging, particularly in long-horizon tasks with sparse and delayed rewards, where agents must execute extended sequences of actions before receiving meaningful feedback. Most existing reinforcement learning (RL) approaches model LLM agents as flat policies operating at a single time scale, selecting one action at each turn. In sparse-reward settings, such flat policies must propagate credit across the entire trajectory without explicit temporal abstraction, which often leads to unstable optimization and inefficient credit assignment. We propose HiPER, a novel Hierarchical Plan-Execute RL framework that explicitly separates high-level planning from low-level execution. HiPER factorizes the policy into a high-level planner that proposes subgoals and a low-level executor that carries them out over multiple action steps. To align optimization with this structure, we introduce a key technique called hierarchical advantage estimation (HAE), which carefully assigns credit at both the planning and execution levels. By aggregating returns over the execution of each subgoal and coordinating updates across the two levels, HAE provides an unbiased gradient estimator and provably reduces variance compared to flat generalized advantage estimation. Empirically, HiPER achieves state-of-the-art performance on challenging interactive benchmarks, reaching 97.4\% success on ALFWorld and 83.3\% on WebShop with Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct (+6.6\% and +8.3\% over the best prior method), with especially large gains on long-horizon tasks requiring multiple dependent subtasks. These results highlight the importance of explicit hierarchical decomposition for scalable RL training of multi-turn LLM agents.

Large language model (LLM) agents often rely on long sequences of low-level textual actions, resulting in large effective decision horizons and high inference cost. While prior work has focused on improving inference efficiency through system-level optimizations or prompt engineering, we argue that a key bottleneck lies in the representation of the action space itself. We propose Latent Action Reparameterization (LAR), a framework that learns a compact latent action space in which each latent action corresponds to a multi-step semantic behavior. By reparameterizing agent actions into latent units, LAR enables decision making over a shorter effective horizon while preserving the expressiveness of the original action space. Unlike hand-crafted macros or hierarchical controllers, latent actions are learned from agent trajectories and integrated directly into the model, allowing both planning and execution to operate over abstract action representations. Across a range of LLM-based agent benchmarks, LAR significantly reduces the effective action horizon and improves inference efficiency under fixed compute budgets. As a consequence, our approach achieves substantial reductions in action tokens and corresponding wall-clock inference time, while maintaining or improving task success rates. These results suggest that action representation learning is a critical and underexplored factor in scaling efficient LLM agent inference, complementary to advances in model architecture and hardware.

The real world is inherently non-stationary, with ever-changing factors, such as weather conditions and traffic flows, making it challenging for agents to adapt to varying environmental dynamics. Non-Stationary Reinforcement Learning (NSRL) addresses this challenge by training agents to adapt rapidly to sequences of distinct Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). However, existing NSRL approaches often focus on tasks with regularly evolving patterns, leading to limited adaptability in highly dynamic settings. Inspired by the success of Wavelet analysis in time series modeling, specifically its ability to capture signal trends at multiple scales, we propose WISDOM to leverage wavelet-domain predictive task representations to enhance NSRL. WISDOM captures these multi-scale features in evolving MDP sequences by transforming task representation sequences into the wavelet domain, where wavelet coefficients represent both global trends and fine-grained variations of non-stationary changes. In addition to the auto-regressive modeling commonly employed in time series forecasting, we devise a wavelet temporal difference (TD) update operator to enhance tracking and prediction of MDP evolution. We theoretically prove the convergence of this operator and demonstrate policy improvement with wavelet task representations. Experiments on diverse benchmarks show that WISDOM significantly outperforms existing baselines in both sample efficiency and asymptotic performance, demonstrating its remarkable adaptability in complex environments characterized by non-stationary and stochastically evolving tasks.

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) is crucial for decision-making to precisely forecast the future values/trends, based on the complex relationships identified from historical observations of multiple sequences. Recently, Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) have gradually become the theme of MTSF model as their powerful capability in mining spatial-temporal dependencies, but almost of them heavily rely on the assumption of historical data integrity. In reality, due to factors such as data collector failures and time-consuming repairment, it is extremely challenging to collect the whole historical observations without missing any variable. In this case, STGNNs can only utilize a subset of normal variables and easily suffer from the incorrect spatial-temporal dependency modeling issue, resulting in the degradation of their forecasting performance. To address the problem, in this paper, we propose a novel Graph Interpolation Attention Recursive Network (named GinAR) to precisely model the spatial-temporal dependencies over the limited collected data for forecasting. In GinAR, it consists of two key components, that is, interpolation attention and adaptive graph convolution to take place of the fully connected layer of simple recursive units, and thus are capable of recovering all missing variables and reconstructing the correct spatial-temporal dependencies for recursively modeling of multivariate time series data, respectively. Extensive experiments conducted on five real-world datasets demonstrate that GinAR outperforms 11 SOTA baselines, and even when 90% of variables are missing, it can still accurately predict the future values of all variables.

While chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting has revolutionized how LLMs perform reasoning tasks, its current methods and variations (e.g, Self-consistency, ReACT, Reflexion, Tree-of-Thoughts (ToT), Cumulative Reasoning (CR)) suffer from limitations like slowness, limited context grounding, hallucination and inconsistent outputs. To overcome these challenges, we introduce Evidence to Generate (E2G), a novel single-agent, two-step prompting framework. Instead of unverified reasoning claims, this innovative approach leverages the power of "evidence for decision making" by first focusing exclusively on the thought sequences (the series of intermediate steps) explicitly mentioned in the context which then serve as extracted evidence, guiding the LLM's output generation process with greater precision and efficiency. This simple yet powerful approach unlocks the true potential of chain-of-thought like prompting, paving the way for faster, more reliable, and more contextually aware reasoning in LLMs. \tool achieves remarkable results robustly across a wide range of knowledge-intensive reasoning and generation tasks, surpassing baseline approaches with state-of-the-art LLMs. For example, (i) on LogiQA benchmark using GPT-4 as backbone model, \tool achieves a new state-of-the Accuracy of 53.8% exceeding CoT by 18%, ToT by 11%, CR by 9% (ii) a variant of E2G with PaLM2 outperforms the variable-shot performance of Gemini Ultra by 0.9 F1 points, reaching an F1 score of 83.3 on a subset of DROP.

World models, which predict transitions based on history observation and action sequences, have shown great promise in improving data efficiency for sequential decision making. However, existing world models often require extensive domain-specific training and still produce low-fidelity, coarse predictions, limiting their applicability in complex environments. In contrast, video diffusion models trained on large, internet-scale datasets have demonstrated impressive capabilities in generating high-quality videos that capture diverse real-world dynamics. In this work, we present Vid2World, a general approach for leveraging and transferring pre-trained video diffusion models into interactive world models. To bridge the gap, Vid2World performs casualization of a pre-trained video diffusion model by crafting its architecture and training objective to enable autoregressive generation. Furthermore, it introduces a causal action guidance mechanism to enhance action controllability in the resulting interactive world model. Extensive experiments in robot manipulation and game simulation domains show that our method offers a scalable and effective approach for repurposing highly capable video diffusion models to interactive world models.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) presents an attractive paradigm for training intelligent agents without expensive online interactions. However, current approaches still struggle with complex, long-horizon sequential decision making. In this work, we introduce DEtached value learning with Action Sequence (DEAS), a simple yet effective offline RL framework that leverages action sequences for value learning. These temporally extended actions provide richer information than single-step actions and can be interpreted through the options framework via semi-Markov decision process Q-learning, enabling reduction of the effective planning horizon by considering longer sequences at once. However, directly adopting such sequences in actor-critic algorithms introduces excessive value overestimation, which we address through detached value learning that steers value estimates toward in-distribution actions that achieve high return in the offline dataset. We demonstrate that DEAS consistently outperforms baselines on complex, long-horizon tasks from OGBench and can be applied to enhance the performance of large-scale Vision-Language-Action models that predict action sequences, significantly boosting performance in both RoboCasa Kitchen simulation tasks and real-world manipulation tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise as interactive agents that solve tasks through extended sequences of environment interactions. While prior work has primarily focused on system-level optimizations or algorithmic improvements, the role of task horizon length in shaping training dynamics remains poorly understood. In this work, we present a systematic empirical study that examines horizon length through controlled task constructions. Specifically, we construct controlled tasks in which agents face identical decision rules and reasoning structures, but differ only in the length of action sequences required for successful completion. Our results reveal that increasing horizon length alone constitutes a training bottleneck, inducing severe training instability driven by exploration difficulties and credit assignment challenges. We demonstrate that horizon reduction is a key principle to address this limitation, stabilizing training and achieving better performance in long-horizon tasks. Moreover, we find that horizon reduction is related to stronger generalization across horizon lengths: models trained under reduced horizons generalize more effectively to longer-horizon variants at inference time, a phenomenon we refer to as horizon generalization.

Large language model agents can often make reasonable local decisions on short tasks, yet their performance degrades when success requires long sequences of dependent actions and tool calls. During execution, task requirements, historical evidence, and the current execution state may gradually become disconnected, so later decisions can drift from the original objective. We study this problem by introducing the Adaptive Consistency Graph (ACG) for long-horizon execution. ACG incrementally organizes execution evidence and its provenance in a persistent graph, then constructs a temporary requirement-centered view for each decision under a bounded context budget. Rather than replacing the base agent's planner or tool executor, ACG provides a structured and traceable context view for each decision. In the matched evaluation, ACG improves GPT-5.6-luna's average success from 44.5\% with ReAct to 50.2\%, with the largest gain on BrowseComp-Plus (73.5\% versus 62.4\%). We further analyze trajectory structure and inference cost to characterize this improvement.

Using massive datasets to train large-scale models has emerged as a dominant approach for broad generalization in natural language and vision applications. In reinforcement learning, however, a key challenge is that available data of sequential decision making is often not annotated with actions - for example, videos of game-play are much more available than sequences of frames paired with their logged game controls. We propose to circumvent this challenge by combining large but sparsely-annotated datasets from a target environment of interest with fully-annotated datasets from various other source environments. Our method, Action Limited PreTraining (ALPT), leverages the generalization capabilities of inverse dynamics modelling (IDM) to label missing action data in the target environment. We show that utilizing even one additional environment dataset of labelled data during IDM pretraining gives rise to substantial improvements in generating action labels for unannotated sequences. We evaluate our method on benchmark game-playing environments and show that we can significantly improve game performance and generalization capability compared to other approaches, using annotated datasets equivalent to only 12 minutes of gameplay. Highlighting the power of IDM, we show that these benefits remain even when target and source environments share no common actions.

This paper presents Diffusion Forcing, a new training paradigm where a diffusion model is trained to denoise a set of tokens with independent per-token noise levels. We apply Diffusion Forcing to sequence generative modeling by training a causal next-token prediction model to generate one or several future tokens without fully diffusing past ones. Our approach is shown to combine the strengths of next-token prediction models, such as variable-length generation, with the strengths of full-sequence diffusion models, such as the ability to guide sampling to desirable trajectories. Our method offers a range of additional capabilities, such as (1) rolling-out sequences of continuous tokens, such as video, with lengths past the training horizon, where baselines diverge and (2) new sampling and guiding schemes that uniquely profit from Diffusion Forcing's variable-horizon and causal architecture, and which lead to marked performance gains in decision-making and planning tasks. In addition to its empirical success, our method is proven to optimize a variational lower bound on the likelihoods of all subsequences of tokens drawn from the true joint distribution. Project website: https://boyuan.space/diffusion-forcing/

Recent innovations in transformers have shown their superior performance in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV). The ability to capture long-range dependencies and interactions in sequential data has also triggered a great interest in time series modeling, leading to the widespread use of transformers in many time series applications. However, being the most common and crucial application, the adaptation of transformers to time series forecasting has remained limited, with both promising and inconsistent results. In contrast to the challenges in NLP and CV, time series problems not only add the complexity of order or temporal dependence among input sequences but also consider trend, level, and seasonality information that much of this data is valuable for decision making. The conventional training scheme has shown deficiencies regarding model overfitting, data scarcity, and privacy issues when working with transformers for a forecasting task. In this work, we propose attentive federated transformers for time series stock forecasting with better performance while preserving the privacy of participating enterprises. Empirical results on various stock data from the Yahoo! Finance website indicate the superiority of our proposed scheme in dealing with the above challenges and data heterogeneity in federated learning.

Long-horizon GUI agents are a key step toward real-world deployment, yet effective interaction memory under prevailing paradigms remains under-explored. Replaying full interaction sequences is redundant and amplifies noise, while summaries often erase dependency-critical information and traceability. We present AndroTMem, a diagnostic framework for anchored memory in long-horizon Android GUI agents. Its core benchmark, AndroTMem-Bench, comprises 1,069 tasks with 34,473 interaction steps (avg. 32.1 per task, max. 65). We evaluate agents with TCR (Task Complete Rate), focusing on tasks whose completion requires carrying forward critical intermediate state; AndroTMem-Bench is designed to enforce strong step-to-step causal dependencies, making sparse yet essential intermediate states decisive for downstream actions and centering interaction memory in evaluation. Across open- and closed-source GUI agents, we observe a consistent pattern: as interaction sequences grow longer, performance drops are driven mainly by within-task memory failures, not isolated perception errors or local action mistakes. Guided by this diagnosis, we propose Anchored State Memory (ASM), which represents interaction sequences as a compact set of causally linked intermediate-state anchors to enable subgoal-targeted retrieval and attribution-aware decision making. Across multiple settings and 12 evaluated GUI agents, ASM consistently outperforms full-sequence replay and summary-based baselines, improving TCR by 5%-30.16% and AMS by 4.93%-24.66%, indicating that anchored, structured memory effectively mitigates the interaction-memory bottleneck in long-horizon GUI tasks. The code, benchmark, and related resources are publicly available at [https://github.com/CVC2233/AndroTMem](https://github.com/CVC2233/AndroTMem).

We consider the question of how to employ next-token prediction algorithms in adversarial online decision-making environments. Specifically, if we train a next-token prediction model on a distribution D over sequences of opponent actions, when is it the case that the induced online decision-making algorithm (by approximately best responding to the model's predictions) has low adversarial regret (i.e., when is D a low-regret distribution)? For unbounded context windows (where the prediction made by the model can depend on all the actions taken by the adversary thus far), we show that although not every distribution D is a low-regret distribution, every distribution D is exponentially close (in TV distance) to one low-regret distribution, and hence sublinear regret can always be achieved at negligible cost to the accuracy of the original next-token prediction model. In contrast to this, for bounded context windows (where the prediction made by the model can depend only on the past w actions taken by the adversary, as may be the case in modern transformer architectures), we show that there are some distributions D of opponent play that are Θ(1)-far from any low-regret distribution D' (even when w = Ω(T) and such distributions exist). Finally, we complement these results by showing that the unbounded context robustification procedure can be implemented by layers of a standard transformer architecture, and provide empirical evidence that transformer models can be efficiently trained to represent these new low-regret distributions.

Mapping crops using remote sensing technology is important for food security and land management. Machine learning-based methods has become a popular approach for crop mapping in recent years. However, the key to machine learning, acquiring ample and accurate samples, is usually time-consuming and laborious. To solve this problem, a crop mapping method in the small sample/no sample case that integrating domain knowledge and using a cascaded classification framework that combine a weak classifier learned from samples with strong features and a strong classifier trained by samples with weak feature was proposed. First, based on the domain knowledge of various crops, a low-capacity classifier such as decision tree was applied to acquire those pixels with distinctive features and complete observation sequences as "strong feature" samples. Then, to improve the representativeness of these samples, sample augmentation strategy that artificially remove the observations of "strong feature" samples according to the average valid observation proportion in target area was applied. Finally, based on the original samples and augmented samples, a large-capacity classifier such as random forest was trained for crop mapping. The method achieved an overall accuracy of 82% in the MAP crop recognition competition held by Syngenta Group, China in 2021 (third prize, ranked fourth). This method integrates domain knowledge to overcome the difficulties of sample acquisition, providing a convenient, fast and accurate solution for crop mapping.

Multi-agent Large Language Model (LLM) systems have emerged as powerful architectures for complex task decomposition and collaborative problem-solving. However, their long-term behavioral stability remains largely unexamined. This study introduces the concept of agent drift, defined as the progressive degradation of agent behavior, decision quality, and inter-agent coherence over extended interaction sequences. We present a comprehensive theoretical framework for understanding drift phenomena, proposing three distinct manifestations: semantic drift (progressive deviation from original intent), coordination drift (breakdown in multi-agent consensus mechanisms), and behavioral drift (emergence of unintended strategies). We introduce the Agent Stability Index (ASI), a novel composite metric framework for quantifying drift across twelve dimensions, including response consistency, tool usage patterns, reasoning pathway stability, and inter-agent agreement rates. Through simulation-based analysis and theoretical modeling, we demonstrate how unchecked agent drift can lead to substantial reductions in task completion accuracy and increased human intervention requirements. We propose three mitigation strategies: episodic memory consolidation, drift-aware routing protocols, and adaptive behavioral anchoring. Theoretical analysis suggests these approaches can significantly reduce drift-related errors while maintaining system throughput. This work establishes a foundational methodology for monitoring, measuring, and mitigating agent drift in production agentic AI systems, with direct implications for enterprise deployment reliability and AI safety research.

Sports-video understanding is moving beyond event recognition toward explaining how actions collectively shape match progression, however, existing tennis-video methods either perceive individual strokes without modeling their tactical dependencies or generate high-level analyses without grounding them in the underlying events. To bridge this perception-to-understanding gap, we formulate stroke-evidence-grounded tactical reasoning, a new rally-level task that requires models to jointly predict an open-ended answer, a hierarchical tactic label, an ordered sequence of supporting strokes, and decisive key actions, with each evidence stroke anchored to its racket-ball contact frame. We further introduce TRACE (Tactical Reasoning with Action-Chain Evidence in Tennis), a large-scale expert-annotated benchmark containing 11,189 rally videos, 41,485 stroke events, 25,429 tactical units, and 11,189 question-answer pairs, which unifies fine-grained stroke attributes, cross-stroke tactical relations, hierarchical tactic annotations, and evidence-grounded questions across factual perception, tactical understanding, and decision reasoning. Building on TRACE, we propose TennisVAR (Tennis Video Action-chain Reasoner), an evidence-grounded multimodal large language model that follows an "event-relation-evidence-tactic" reasoning paradigm, where an Event Parsing Module converts continuous rallies into explicit stroke-event sequences while a Tactical Graph-Guided Temporal Reasoner jointly models rally progression and same-player decision dependencies to identify question-relevant evidence and decisive actions.

Decision Transformer (DT) is an innovative algorithm leveraging recent advances of the transformer architecture in reinforcement learning (RL). However, a notable limitation of DT is its reliance on recalling trajectories from datasets, losing the capability to seamlessly stitch sub-optimal trajectories together. In this work we introduce a general sequence modeling framework for studying sequential decision making through the lens of Hierarchical RL. At the time of making decisions, a high-level policy first proposes an ideal prompt for the current state, a low-level policy subsequently generates an action conditioned on the given prompt. We show DT emerges as a special case of this framework with certain choices of high-level and low-level policies, and discuss the potential failure of these choices. Inspired by these observations, we study how to jointly optimize the high-level and low-level policies to enable the stitching ability, which further leads to the development of new offline RL algorithms. Our empirical results clearly show that the proposed algorithms significantly surpass DT on several control and navigation benchmarks. We hope our contributions can inspire the integration of transformer architectures within the field of RL.

Recent work has demonstrated the effectiveness of formulating decision making as a supervised learning problem on offline-collected trajectories. However, the benefits of performing sequence modeling on trajectory data is not yet clear. In this work we investigate if sequence modeling has the capability to condense trajectories into useful representations that can contribute to policy learning. To achieve this, we adopt a two-stage framework that first summarizes trajectories with sequence modeling techniques, and then employs these representations to learn a policy along with a desired goal. This design allows many existing supervised offline RL methods to be considered as specific instances of our framework. Within this framework, we introduce Goal-Conditioned Predicitve Coding (GCPC), an approach that brings powerful trajectory representations and leads to performant policies. We conduct extensive empirical evaluations on AntMaze, FrankaKitchen and Locomotion environments, and observe that sequence modeling has a significant impact on some decision making tasks. In addition, we demonstrate that GCPC learns a goal-conditioned latent representation about the future, which serves as an "implicit planner", and enables competitive performance on all three benchmarks.

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems play an increasingly prominent role in human decision-making, challenges surface in the realm of human-AI interactions. One challenge arises from the suboptimal AI policies due to the inadequate consideration of humans disregarding AI recommendations, as well as the need for AI to provide advice selectively when it is most pertinent. This paper presents a sequential decision-making model that (i) takes into account the human's adherence level (the probability that the human follows/rejects machine advice) and (ii) incorporates a defer option so that the machine can temporarily refrain from making advice. We provide learning algorithms that learn the optimal advice policy and make advice only at critical time stamps. Compared to problem-agnostic reinforcement learning algorithms, our specialized learning algorithms not only enjoy better theoretical convergence properties but also show strong empirical performance.

How do sequence models represent their decision-making process? Prior work suggests that Othello-playing neural network learned nonlinear models of the board state (Li et al., 2023). In this work, we provide evidence of a closely related linear representation of the board. In particular, we show that probing for "my colour" vs. "opponent's colour" may be a simple yet powerful way to interpret the model's internal state. This precise understanding of the internal representations allows us to control the model's behaviour with simple vector arithmetic. Linear representations enable significant interpretability progress, which we demonstrate with further exploration of how the world model is computed.

The general sequential decision-making problem, which includes Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) as special cases, aims at maximizing a cumulative reward by making a sequence of decisions based on a history of observations and actions over time. Recent studies have shown that the sequential decision-making problem is statistically learnable if it admits a low-rank structure modeled by predictive state representations (PSRs). Despite these advancements, existing approaches typically involve oracles or steps that are computationally intractable. On the other hand, the upper confidence bound (UCB) based approaches, which have served successfully as computationally efficient methods in bandits and MDPs, have not been investigated for more general PSRs, due to the difficulty of optimistic bonus design in these more challenging settings. This paper proposes the first known UCB-type approach for PSRs, featuring a novel bonus term that upper bounds the total variation distance between the estimated and true models. We further characterize the sample complexity bounds for our designed UCB-type algorithms for both online and offline PSRs. In contrast to existing approaches for PSRs, our UCB-type algorithms enjoy computational tractability, last-iterate guaranteed near-optimal policy, and guaranteed model accuracy.

Sequential decision-making agents struggle with long horizon tasks, since solving them requires multi-step reasoning. Most reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms address this challenge by improved credit assignment, introducing memory capability, altering the agent's intrinsic motivation (i.e. exploration) or its worldview (i.e. knowledge representation). Many of these components could be learned from offline data. In this work, we follow the hypothesis that exploration and representation learning can be improved by separately learning two different models from a single offline dataset. We show that learning a state representation using noise-contrastive estimation and a model of auxiliary reward separately from a single collection of human demonstrations can significantly improve the sample efficiency on the challenging NetHack benchmark. We also ablate various components of our experimental setting and highlight crucial insights.

Most work on sequential learning assumes a fixed set of actions that are available all the time. However, in practice, actions can consist of picking subsets of readings from sensors that may break from time to time, road segments that can be blocked or goods that are out of stock. In this paper we study learning algorithms that are able to deal with stochastic availability of such unreliable composite actions. We propose and analyze algorithms based on the Follow-The-Perturbed-Leader prediction method for several learning settings differing in the feedback provided to the learner. Our algorithms rely on a novel loss estimation technique that we call Counting Asleep Times. We deliver regret bounds for our algorithms for the previously studied full information and (semi-)bandit settings, as well as a natural middle point between the two that we call the restricted information setting. A special consequence of our results is a significant improvement of the best known performance guarantees achieved by an efficient algorithm for the sleeping bandit problem with stochastic availability. Finally, we evaluate our algorithms empirically and show their improvement over the known approaches.

Sequences have become first class citizens in supervised learning thanks to the resurgence of recurrent neural networks. Many complex tasks that require mapping from or to a sequence of observations can now be formulated with the sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) framework which employs the chain rule to efficiently represent the joint probability of sequences. In many cases, however, variable sized inputs and/or outputs might not be naturally expressed as sequences. For instance, it is not clear how to input a set of numbers into a model where the task is to sort them; similarly, we do not know how to organize outputs when they correspond to random variables and the task is to model their unknown joint probability. In this paper, we first show using various examples that the order in which we organize input and/or output data matters significantly when learning an underlying model. We then discuss an extension of the seq2seq framework that goes beyond sequences and handles input sets in a principled way. In addition, we propose a loss which, by searching over possible orders during training, deals with the lack of structure of output sets. We show empirical evidence of our claims regarding ordering, and on the modifications to the seq2seq framework on benchmark language modeling and parsing tasks, as well as two artificial tasks -- sorting numbers and estimating the joint probability of unknown graphical models.

Many cybersecurity problems that require real-time decision-making based on temporal observations can be abstracted as a sequence modeling problem, e.g., network intrusion detection from a sequence of arriving packets. Existing approaches like reinforcement learning may not be suitable for such cybersecurity decision problems, since the Markovian property may not necessarily hold and the underlying network states are often not observable. In this paper, we cast the problem of real-time network intrusion detection as casual sequence modeling and draw upon the power of the transformer architecture for real-time decision-making. By conditioning a causal decision transformer on past trajectories, consisting of the rewards, network packets, and detection decisions, our proposed framework will generate future detection decisions to achieve the desired return. It enables decision transformers to be applied to real-time network intrusion detection, as well as a novel tradeoff between the accuracy and timeliness of detection. The proposed solution is evaluated on public network intrusion detection datasets and outperforms several baseline algorithms using reinforcement learning and sequence modeling, in terms of detection accuracy and timeliness.

Sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives arise naturally in practice and pose unique challenges for research in decision-theoretic planning and learning, which has largely focused on single-objective settings. This article surveys algorithms designed for sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives. Though there is a growing body of literature on this subject, little of it makes explicit under what circumstances special methods are needed to solve multi-objective problems. Therefore, we identify three distinct scenarios in which converting such a problem to a single-objective one is impossible, infeasible, or undesirable. Furthermore, we propose a taxonomy that classifies multi-objective methods according to the applicable scenario, the nature of the scalarization function (which projects multi-objective values to scalar ones), and the type of policies considered. We show how these factors determine the nature of an optimal solution, which can be a single policy, a convex hull, or a Pareto front. Using this taxonomy, we survey the literature on multi-objective methods for planning and learning. Finally, we discuss key applications of such methods and outline opportunities for future work.

Two common approaches to sequential decision-making are AI planning (AIP) and reinforcement learning (RL). Each has strengths and weaknesses. AIP is interpretable, easy to integrate with symbolic knowledge, and often efficient, but requires an up-front logical domain specification and is sensitive to noise; RL only requires specification of rewards and is robust to noise but is sample inefficient and not easily supplied with external knowledge. We propose an integrative approach that combines high-level planning with RL, retaining interpretability, transfer, and efficiency, while allowing for robust learning of the lower-level plan actions. Our approach defines options in hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) from AIP operators by establishing a correspondence between the state transition model of AI planning problem and the abstract state transition system of a Markov Decision Process (MDP). Options are learned by adding intrinsic rewards to encourage consistency between the MDP and AIP transition models. We demonstrate the benefit of our integrated approach by comparing the performance of RL and HRL algorithms in both MiniGrid and N-rooms environments, showing the advantage of our method over the existing ones.

This graduate textbook on machine learning tells a story of how patterns in data support predictions and consequential actions. Starting with the foundations of decision making, we cover representation, optimization, and generalization as the constituents of supervised learning. A chapter on datasets as benchmarks examines their histories and scientific bases. Self-contained introductions to causality, the practice of causal inference, sequential decision making, and reinforcement learning equip the reader with concepts and tools to reason about actions and their consequences. Throughout, the text discusses historical context and societal impact. We invite readers from all backgrounds; some experience with probability, calculus, and linear algebra suffices.

We consider the question: when a large language reasoning model makes a choice, did it think first and then decide to, or decide first and then think? In this paper, we present evidence that detectable, early-encoded decisions shape chain-of-thought in reasoning models. Specifically, we show that a simple linear probe successfully decodes tool-calling decisions from pre-generation activations with very high confidence, and in some cases, even before a single reasoning token is produced. Activation steering supports this causally: perturbing the decision direction leads to inflated deliberation, and flips behavior in many examples (between 7 - 79% depending on model and benchmark). We also show through behavioral analysis that, when steering changes the decision, the chain-of-thought process often rationalizes the flip rather than resisting it. Together, these results suggest that reasoning models can encode action choices before they begin to deliberate in text.

A popular approach for sequential decision-making is to perform simulator-based search guided with Machine Learning (ML) methods like policy learning. On the other hand, model-relaxation heuristics can guide the search effectively if a full declarative model is available. In this work, we consider how a practitioner can improve ML-based black-box planning on settings where a complete symbolic model is not available. We show that specifying an incomplete STRIPS model that describes only part of the problem enables the use of relaxation heuristics. Our findings on several planning domains suggest that this is an effective way to improve ML-based black-box planning beyond collecting more data or tuning ML architectures.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is typically concerned with estimating stationary policies or single-step models, leveraging the Markov property to factorize problems in time. However, we can also view RL as a generic sequence modeling problem, with the goal being to produce a sequence of actions that leads to a sequence of high rewards. Viewed in this way, it is tempting to consider whether high-capacity sequence prediction models that work well in other domains, such as natural-language processing, can also provide effective solutions to the RL problem. To this end, we explore how RL can be tackled with the tools of sequence modeling, using a Transformer architecture to model distributions over trajectories and repurposing beam search as a planning algorithm. Framing RL as sequence modeling problem simplifies a range of design decisions, allowing us to dispense with many of the components common in offline RL algorithms. We demonstrate the flexibility of this approach across long-horizon dynamics prediction, imitation learning, goal-conditioned RL, and offline RL. Further, we show that this approach can be combined with existing model-free algorithms to yield a state-of-the-art planner in sparse-reward, long-horizon tasks.

In recent years, reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a popular approach for solving sequence-based tasks in machine learning. However, finding suitable alternatives to RL remains an exciting and innovative research area. One such alternative that has garnered attention is the Non-Axiomatic Reasoning System (NARS), which is a general-purpose cognitive reasoning framework. In this paper, we delve into the potential of NARS as a substitute for RL in solving sequence-based tasks. To investigate this, we conduct a comparative analysis of the performance of ONA as an implementation of NARS and Q-Learning in various environments that were created using the Open AI gym. The environments have different difficulty levels, ranging from simple to complex. Our results demonstrate that NARS is a promising alternative to RL, with competitive performance in diverse environments, particularly in non-deterministic ones.

In nonstationary bandit learning problems, the decision-maker must continually gather information and adapt their action selection as the latent state of the environment evolves. In each time period, some latent optimal action maximizes expected reward under the environment state. We view the optimal action sequence as a stochastic process, and take an information-theoretic approach to analyze attainable performance. We bound limiting per-period regret in terms of the entropy rate of the optimal action process. The bound applies to a wide array of problems studied in the literature and reflects the problem's information structure through its information-ratio.

Recently, sequence learning methods have been applied to the problem of off-policy Reinforcement Learning, including the seminal work on Decision Transformers, which employs transformers for this task. Since transformers are parameter-heavy, cannot benefit from history longer than a fixed window size, and are not computed using recurrence, we set out to investigate the suitability of the S4 family of models, which are based on state-space layers and have been shown to outperform transformers, especially in modeling long-range dependencies. In this work we present two main algorithms: (i) an off-policy training procedure that works with trajectories, while still maintaining the training efficiency of the S4 model. (ii) An on-policy training procedure that is trained in a recurrent manner, benefits from long-range dependencies, and is based on a novel stable actor-critic mechanism. Our results indicate that our method outperforms multiple variants of decision transformers, as well as the other baseline methods on most tasks, while reducing the latency, number of parameters, and training time by several orders of magnitude, making our approach more suitable for real-world RL.

Sequential prediction problems such as imitation learning, where future observations depend on previous predictions (actions), violate the common i.i.d. assumptions made in statistical learning. This leads to poor performance in theory and often in practice. Some recent approaches provide stronger guarantees in this setting, but remain somewhat unsatisfactory as they train either non-stationary or stochastic policies and require a large number of iterations. In this paper, we propose a new iterative algorithm, which trains a stationary deterministic policy, that can be seen as a no regret algorithm in an online learning setting. We show that any such no regret algorithm, combined with additional reduction assumptions, must find a policy with good performance under the distribution of observations it induces in such sequential settings. We demonstrate that this new approach outperforms previous approaches on two challenging imitation learning problems and a benchmark sequence labeling problem.

Machine learning has successfully framed many sequential decision making problems as either supervised prediction, or optimal decision-making policy identification via reinforcement learning. In data-constrained offline settings, both approaches may fail as they assume fully optimal behavior or rely on exploring alternatives that may not exist. We introduce an inherently different approach that identifies possible "dead-ends" of a state space. We focus on the condition of patients in the intensive care unit, where a "medical dead-end" indicates that a patient will expire, regardless of all potential future treatment sequences. We postulate "treatment security" as avoiding treatments with probability proportional to their chance of leading to dead-ends, present a formal proof, and frame discovery as an RL problem. We then train three independent deep neural models for automated state construction, dead-end discovery and confirmation. Our empirical results discover that dead-ends exist in real clinical data among septic patients, and further reveal gaps between secure treatments and those that were administered.

We introduce a framework that abstracts Reinforcement Learning (RL) as a sequence modeling problem. This allows us to draw upon the simplicity and scalability of the Transformer architecture, and associated advances in language modeling such as GPT-x and BERT. In particular, we present Decision Transformer, an architecture that casts the problem of RL as conditional sequence modeling. Unlike prior approaches to RL that fit value functions or compute policy gradients, Decision Transformer simply outputs the optimal actions by leveraging a causally masked Transformer. By conditioning an autoregressive model on the desired return (reward), past states, and actions, our Decision Transformer model can generate future actions that achieve the desired return. Despite its simplicity, Decision Transformer matches or exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art model-free offline RL baselines on Atari, OpenAI Gym, and Key-to-Door tasks.

Data of sequential nature arise in many application domains in forms of, e.g. textual data, DNA sequences, and software execution traces. Different research disciplines have developed methods to learn sequence models from such datasets: (i) in the machine learning field methods such as (hidden) Markov models and recurrent neural networks have been developed and successfully applied to a wide-range of tasks, (ii) in process mining process discovery techniques aim to generate human-interpretable descriptive models, and (iii) in the grammar inference field the focus is on finding descriptive models in the form of formal grammars. Despite their different focuses, these fields share a common goal - learning a model that accurately describes the behavior in the underlying data. Those sequence models are generative, i.e, they can predict what elements are likely to occur after a given unfinished sequence. So far, these fields have developed mainly in isolation from each other and no comparison exists. This paper presents an interdisciplinary experimental evaluation that compares sequence modeling techniques on the task of next-element prediction on four real-life sequence datasets. The results indicate that machine learning techniques that generally have no aim at interpretability in terms of accuracy outperform techniques from the process mining and grammar inference fields that aim to yield interpretable models.

Adaptive behavior often requires predicting future events. The theory of reinforcement learning prescribes what kinds of predictive representations are useful and how to compute them. This paper integrates these theoretical ideas with work on cognition and neuroscience. We pay special attention to the successor representation (SR) and its generalizations, which have been widely applied both as engineering tools and models of brain function. This convergence suggests that particular kinds of predictive representations may function as versatile building blocks of intelligence.

Prompt engineering is crucial for deploying LLMs but is poorly understood mathematically. We formalize LLM systems as a class of discrete stochastic dynamical systems to explore prompt engineering through the lens of control theory. We investigate the reachable set of output token sequences R_y(mathbf x_0) for which there exists a control input sequence mathbf u for each mathbf y in R_y(mathbf x_0) that steers the LLM to output mathbf y from initial state sequence mathbf x_0. We offer analytic analysis on the limitations on the controllability of self-attention in terms of reachable set, where we prove an upper bound on the reachable set of outputs R_y(mathbf x_0) as a function of the singular values of the parameter matrices. We present complementary empirical analysis on the controllability of a panel of LLMs, including Falcon-7b, Llama-7b, and Falcon-40b. Our results demonstrate a lower bound on the reachable set of outputs R_y(mathbf x_0) w.r.t. initial state sequences mathbf x_0 sampled from the Wikitext dataset. We find that the correct next Wikitext token following sequence mathbf x_0 is reachable over 97% of the time with prompts of kleq 10 tokens. We also establish that the top 75 most likely next tokens, as estimated by the LLM itself, are reachable at least 85% of the time with prompts of kleq 10 tokens. Intriguingly, short prompt sequences can dramatically alter the likelihood of specific outputs, even making the least likely tokens become the most likely ones. This control-centric analysis of LLMs demonstrates the significant and poorly understood role of input sequences in steering output probabilities, offering a foundational perspective for enhancing language model system capabilities.

We study model-free Q-learning in finite-horizon episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with stationary dynamics across episodes. We identify a central issue in nascent model-free posterior-sampling works: the reliance on delayed learning in order to prove theoretical guarantees. In particular, we identify three opportunities for faster learning - (i) value-function update order, (ii) update frequencies, and (iii) value-function initialization. Using Wang et al.'s RandomizedQ as a basis, we illustrate these changes and their individual (as well as cumulative) impact in multiple empirical studies. We find that our combined modifications, termed ReversedQ, improve scaled mean cumulative reward compared to RandomizedQ, from 9.53% to 78.78% in the Bidirectional Diabolical Combination Lock (BDCL), and from 21.76% to 61.81% in a chain MDP.

A semantic decision engine such as Jev can return a valid answer and still miss a network deadline, select an infeasible action or leave the service unverified. We systematize 139 paper families by decision interface, execution path and check ownership. Fifty families claim that their engine fits a control loop or time budget, but only four support the claim with matched measurement. Across all 139, four report deadline attainment. The gap concentrates where the decision has no deterministic computation step. Those 72 families make 22 of the claims, none supported, and name a coverage owner in only two. Bounded tests under one event model show that each gap can reverse an admission verdict. A decision that meets a 10 s budget for every isolated request meets it for none once decisions queue ahead of replayed execution times. The same engine passes one coverage check and fails another. We derive a minimum reporting record, design rules and a research agenda for admitting decision engines to control loops.

More and more processes governing our lives use in some part an automatic decision step, where -- based on a feature vector derived from an applicant -- an algorithm has the decision power over the final outcome. Here we present a simple idea which gives some of the power back to the applicant by providing her with alternatives which would make the decision algorithm decide differently. It is based on a formalization reminiscent of methods used for evasion attacks, and consists in enumerating the subspaces where the classifiers decides the desired output. This has been implemented for the specific case of decision forests (ensemble methods based on decision trees), mapping the problem to an iterative version of enumerating k-cliques.

In this paper we address the solution of the popular Wordle puzzle, using new reinforcement learning methods, which apply more generally to adaptive control of dynamic systems and to classes of Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) problems. These methods are based on approximation in value space and the rollout approach, admit a straightforward implementation, and provide improved performance over various heuristic approaches. For the Wordle puzzle, they yield on-line solution strategies that are very close to optimal at relatively modest computational cost. Our methods are viable for more complex versions of Wordle and related search problems, for which an optimal strategy would be impossible to compute. They are also applicable to a wide range of adaptive sequential decision problems that involve an unknown or frequently changing environment whose parameters are estimated on-line.

In reasoning about sequential events it is natural to pose probabilistic queries such as "when will event A occur next" or "what is the probability of A occurring before B", with applications in areas such as user modeling, medicine, and finance. However, with machine learning shifting towards neural autoregressive models such as RNNs and transformers, probabilistic querying has been largely restricted to simple cases such as next-event prediction. This is in part due to the fact that future querying involves marginalization over large path spaces, which is not straightforward to do efficiently in such models. In this paper we introduce a general typology for predictive queries in neural autoregressive sequence models and show that such queries can be systematically represented by sets of elementary building blocks. We leverage this typology to develop new query estimation methods based on beam search, importance sampling, and hybrids. Across four large-scale sequence datasets from different application domains, as well as for the GPT-2 language model, we demonstrate the ability to make query answering tractable for arbitrary queries in exponentially-large predictive path-spaces, and find clear differences in cost-accuracy tradeoffs between search and sampling methods.

As more non-AI experts use complex AI systems for daily tasks, there has been an increasing effort to develop methods that produce explanations of AI decision making that are understandable by non-AI experts. Towards this effort, leveraging higher-level concepts and producing concept-based explanations have become a popular method. Most concept-based explanations have been developed for classification techniques, and we posit that the few existing methods for sequential decision making are limited in scope. In this work, we first contribute a desiderata for defining concepts in sequential decision making settings. Additionally, inspired by the Protege Effect which states explaining knowledge often reinforces one's self-learning, we explore how concept-based explanations of an RL agent's decision making can in turn improve the agent's learning rate, as well as improve end-user understanding of the agent's decision making. To this end, we contribute a unified framework, State2Explanation (S2E), that involves learning a joint embedding model between state-action pairs and concept-based explanations, and leveraging such learned model to both (1) inform reward shaping during an agent's training, and (2) provide explanations to end-users at deployment for improved task performance. Our experimental validations, in Connect 4 and Lunar Lander, demonstrate the success of S2E in providing a dual-benefit, successfully informing reward shaping and improving agent learning rate, as well as significantly improving end user task performance at deployment time.

Integer sequences are of central importance to the modeling of concepts admitting complete finitary descriptions. We introduce a novel view on the learning of such concepts and lay down a set of benchmarking tasks aimed at conceptual understanding by machine learning models. These tasks indirectly assess model ability to abstract, and challenge them to reason both interpolatively and extrapolatively from the knowledge gained by observing representative examples. To further aid research in knowledge representation and reasoning, we present FACT, the Finitary Abstraction Comprehension Toolkit. The toolkit surrounds a large dataset of integer sequences comprising both organic and synthetic entries, a library for data pre-processing and generation, a set of model performance evaluation tools, and a collection of baseline model implementations, enabling the making of the future advancements with ease.

Real-world sequential decision making is characterized by sparse rewards and large decision spaces, posing significant difficulty for experiential learning systems like tabula rasa reinforcement learning (RL) agents. Large Language Models (LLMs), with a wealth of world knowledge, can help RL agents learn quickly and adapt to distribution shifts. In this work, we introduce Language Guided Exploration (LGE) framework, which uses a pre-trained language model (called GUIDE ) to provide decision-level guidance to an RL agent (called EXPLORER). We observe that on ScienceWorld (Wang et al.,2022), a challenging text environment, LGE outperforms vanilla RL agents significantly and also outperforms other sophisticated methods like Behaviour Cloning and Text Decision Transformer.

System One models choose an agent's next action by scoring a supplied set of options in a single pass. This makes them fast and cheap, but when they choose wrongly there is nothing to inspect: did the model misread what the agent has seen, or read it correctly and still act wrongly? We answer behaviorally. On a frozen benchmark of agent decision states from simulated environments, customer-service policies, tool use, web navigation and coding, we pair every next-action question with factual probes about the same state, each answered independently. Across seventeen fast systems and a reasoning model, the answer is consistent: most wrong actions follow correct reading, and the more accurate a system, the more of its errors take this form. These errors are not noise; they gather on the same states across systems of every kind. Where the probed facts provably determine the action, models that read every fact still fail to combine them, and their own answers, composed by code, repair the failure. On real states, what is missing is often not a fact but the next sub-goal.

Interactive agents repeatedly choose among a finite set of actions, labels, or ordinal outcomes. Generating a free-form response for each choice adds latency and complicates the interface between a model and its environment. We present Intern-Decision, a family of 0.8B, 2B, and 4B multimodal decision models that return structured choices and candidate probabilities from text and optional images. Our autoregressive masked language modeling objective places one decision placeholder per field in a complete assistant JSON skeleton. Ground-truth symbols appear only in supervision, while all fields are evaluated in a single causal forward pass using the backbone's native language-model head. The 4B model achieves a 90.02% unweighted average accuracy across seven evaluation suites, compared with 88.74% for Jev v1.13.0. For a fixed 289-token request with three fields on one RTX 4090, mean latency is 44.16 ms for the 4B model and approximately 33--34 ms for the smaller models. On a separate 96-case known-distribution pilot, temperature scaling reduces expected multiclass Brier from 0.628 to 0.550 and expected calibration error from 0.213 to 0.089. A confidence-based handoff study on 111 public Jevbench-Hard items improves accuracy from 82/111 (73.87%) to 97/111 (87.39%) by routing 42 items to Atria-Dawn-Preview. We also describe qualitative game, visual interface, and browser demonstrations. These results support compact decision models as a practical component of larger agent systems.

We consider the regret minimization task in a dueling bandits problem with context information. In every round of the sequential decision problem, the learner makes a context-dependent selection of two choice alternatives (arms) to be compared with each other and receives feedback in the form of noisy preference information. We assume that the feedback process is determined by a linear stochastic transitivity model with contextualized utilities (CoLST), and the learner's task is to include the best arm (with highest latent context-dependent utility) in the duel. We propose a computationally efficient algorithm, CoLSTIM, which makes its choice based on imitating the feedback process using perturbed context-dependent utility estimates of the underlying CoLST model. If each arm is associated with a d-dimensional feature vector, we show that CoLSTIM achieves a regret of order tilde O( dT) after T learning rounds. Additionally, we also establish the optimality of CoLSTIM by showing a lower bound for the weak regret that refines the existing average regret analysis. Our experiments demonstrate its superiority over state-of-art algorithms for special cases of CoLST models.

We consider the problem of learning in a non-stationary reinforcement learning (RL) environment, where the setting can be fully described by a piecewise stationary discrete-time Markov decision process (MDP). We introduce a variant of the Restarted Bayesian Online Change-Point Detection algorithm (R-BOCPD) that operates on input streams originating from the more general multinomial distribution and provides near-optimal theoretical guarantees in terms of false-alarm rate and detection delay. Based on this, we propose an improved version of the UCRL2 algorithm for MDPs with state transition kernel sampled from a multinomial distribution, which we call R-BOCPD-UCRL2. We perform a finite-time performance analysis and show that R-BOCPD-UCRL2 enjoys a favorable regret bound of Oleft(D O A T K_T logleft (frac{T{delta} right) + K_T log frac{K_T{delta}}{minlimits_ell : KLleft( {theta^{(ell+1)}}midmathbf{theta^{(ell)}}right)}}right), where D is the largest MDP diameter from the set of MDPs defining the piecewise stationary MDP setting, O is the finite number of states (constant over all changes), A is the finite number of actions (constant over all changes), K_T is the number of change points up to horizon T, and theta^{(ell)} is the transition kernel during the interval [c_ell, c_{ell+1}), which we assume to be multinomially distributed over the set of states O. Interestingly, the performance bound does not directly scale with the variation in MDP state transition distributions and rewards, ie. can also model abrupt changes. In practice, R-BOCPD-UCRL2 outperforms the state-of-the-art in a variety of scenarios in synthetic environments. We provide a detailed experimental setup along with a code repository (upon publication) that can be used to easily reproduce our experiments.

This analysis explores the temporal sequencing of objects in a movie trailer. Temporal sequencing of objects in a movie trailer (e.g., a long shot of an object vs intermittent short shots) can convey information about the type of movie, plot of the movie, role of the main characters, and the filmmakers cinematographic choices. When combined with historical customer data, sequencing analysis can be used to improve predictions of customer behavior. E.g., a customer buys tickets to a new movie and maybe the customer has seen movies in the past that contained similar sequences. To explore object sequencing in movie trailers, we propose a video convolutional network to capture actions and scenes that are predictive of customers' preferences. The model learns the specific nature of sequences for different types of objects (e.g., cars vs faces), and the role of sequences in predicting customer future behavior. We show how such a temporal-aware model outperforms simple feature pooling methods proposed in our previous works and, importantly, demonstrate the additional model explain-ability allowed by such a model.

Many real-world games do not admit a fixed, compact rule set: instead, their dynamics are defined by interactions among a large and often evolving collection of game pieces, making general-purpose policy learning impractical. Magic: the Gathering (MTG) exemplifies this setting, where the cards themselves define and alter gameplay rules, strategic constraints, and long-term outcomes, while the pool of available cards is ever-changing. We study Draft, a constrained deck-building format of MTG in which eight players make 39-45 sequential selections from semi-random packs to construct a 40-card deck under partial information. By isolating the card selection process from gameplay, Draft provides a tractable yet non-trivial setting for studying decision-making driven by combinatorial card synergies. We propose an encoder-based model that produces set-contextualized card embeddings to encode the draft decision sequence, with a consistent improvement over linear baselines on large-scale real-world data, establishing a first learned benchmark for outcome prediction in MTG Draft. Our code is available at github.com/akulen/MtGDraftEncoder.

In this paper, we introduce the Preselection Bandit problem, in which the learner preselects a subset of arms (choice alternatives) for a user, which then chooses the final arm from this subset. The learner is not aware of the user's preferences, but can learn them from observed choices. In our concrete setting, we allow these choices to be stochastic and model the user's actions by means of the Plackett-Luce model. The learner's main task is to preselect subsets that eventually lead to highly preferred choices. To formalize this goal, we introduce a reasonable notion of regret and derive lower bounds on the expected regret. Moreover, we propose algorithms for which the upper bound on expected regret matches the lower bound up to a logarithmic term of the time horizon.

Representations are at the core of all deep reinforcement learning (RL) methods for both Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Many representation learning methods and theoretical frameworks have been developed to understand what constitutes an effective representation. However, the relationships between these methods and the shared properties among them remain unclear. In this paper, we show that many of these seemingly distinct methods and frameworks for state and history abstractions are, in fact, based on a common idea of self-predictive abstraction. Furthermore, we provide theoretical insights into the widely adopted objectives and optimization, such as the stop-gradient technique, in learning self-predictive representations. These findings together yield a minimalist algorithm to learn self-predictive representations for states and histories. We validate our theories by applying our algorithm to standard MDPs, MDPs with distractors, and POMDPs with sparse rewards. These findings culminate in a set of preliminary guidelines for RL practitioners.

Despite the recent success of representation learning in sequential decision making, the study of the pure exploration scenario (i.e., identify the best option and minimize the sample complexity) is still limited. In this paper, we study multi-task representation learning for best arm identification in linear bandits (RepBAI-LB) and best policy identification in contextual linear bandits (RepBPI-CLB), two popular pure exploration settings with wide applications, e.g., clinical trials and web content optimization. In these two problems, all tasks share a common low-dimensional linear representation, and our goal is to leverage this feature to accelerate the best arm (policy) identification process for all tasks. For these problems, we design computationally and sample efficient algorithms DouExpDes and C-DouExpDes, which perform double experimental designs to plan optimal sample allocations for learning the global representation. We show that by learning the common representation among tasks, our sample complexity is significantly better than that of the native approach which solves tasks independently. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to demonstrate the benefits of representation learning for multi-task pure exploration.

Neural architectures such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Transformers, and State-Space Models have shown great success in handling sequential data by learning temporal dependencies. Decision Trees (DTs), on the other hand, remain a widely used class of models for structured tabular data but are typically not designed to capture sequential patterns directly. Instead, DT-based approaches for time-series data often rely on feature engineering, such as manually incorporating lag features, which can be suboptimal for capturing complex temporal dependencies. To address this limitation, we introduce ReMeDe Trees, a novel recurrent DT architecture that integrates an internal memory mechanism, similar to RNNs, to learn long-term dependencies in sequential data. Our model learns hard, axis-aligned decision rules for both output generation and state updates, optimizing them efficiently via gradient descent. We provide a proof-of-concept study on synthetic benchmarks to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

We propose a new class of deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms that model latent representations in hyperbolic space. Sequential decision-making requires reasoning about the possible future consequences of current behavior. Consequently, capturing the relationship between key evolving features for a given task is conducive to recovering effective policies. To this end, hyperbolic geometry provides deep RL models with a natural basis to precisely encode this inherently hierarchical information. However, applying existing methodologies from the hyperbolic deep learning literature leads to fatal optimization instabilities due to the non-stationarity and variance characterizing RL gradient estimators. Hence, we design a new general method that counteracts such optimization challenges and enables stable end-to-end learning with deep hyperbolic representations. We empirically validate our framework by applying it to popular on-policy and off-policy RL algorithms on the Procgen and Atari 100K benchmarks, attaining near universal performance and generalization benefits. Given its natural fit, we hope future RL research will consider hyperbolic representations as a standard tool.

Sequential decision making, commonly formalized as Markov Decision Process (MDP) optimization, is a important challenge in artificial intelligence. Two key approaches to this problem are reinforcement learning (RL) and planning. This paper presents a survey of the integration of both fields, better known as model-based reinforcement learning. Model-based RL has two main steps. First, we systematically cover approaches to dynamics model learning, including challenges like dealing with stochasticity, uncertainty, partial observability, and temporal abstraction. Second, we present a systematic categorization of planning-learning integration, including aspects like: where to start planning, what budgets to allocate to planning and real data collection, how to plan, and how to integrate planning in the learning and acting loop. After these two sections, we also discuss implicit model-based RL as an end-to-end alternative for model learning and planning, and we cover the potential benefits of model-based RL. Along the way, the survey also draws connections to several related RL fields, like hierarchical RL and transfer learning. Altogether, the survey presents a broad conceptual overview of the combination of planning and learning for MDP optimization.

In this note (work in progress towards a full-length paper) we show that a family of sequence models based on recurrent linear layers~(including S4, S5, and the LRU) interleaved with position-wise multi-layer perceptrons~(MLPs) can approximate arbitrarily well any sufficiently regular non-linear sequence-to-sequence map. The main idea behind our result is to see recurrent layers as compression algorithms that can faithfully store information about the input sequence into an inner state, before it is processed by the highly expressive MLP.

Recent improvements in conditional generative modeling have made it possible to generate high-quality images from language descriptions alone. We investigate whether these methods can directly address the problem of sequential decision-making. We view decision-making not through the lens of reinforcement learning (RL), but rather through conditional generative modeling. To our surprise, we find that our formulation leads to policies that can outperform existing offline RL approaches across standard benchmarks. By modeling a policy as a return-conditional diffusion model, we illustrate how we may circumvent the need for dynamic programming and subsequently eliminate many of the complexities that come with traditional offline RL. We further demonstrate the advantages of modeling policies as conditional diffusion models by considering two other conditioning variables: constraints and skills. Conditioning on a single constraint or skill during training leads to behaviors at test-time that can satisfy several constraints together or demonstrate a composition of skills. Our results illustrate that conditional generative modeling is a powerful tool for decision-making.

Large language model agents can plan, invoke tools, and modify external states, yet most systems still take an explicit user instruction as a fixed starting point. Proactive service moves the decision upstream: an agent must infer service opportunities from incomplete environmental and user signals, choose among remaining silent, asking, assisting, and acting, and account for interruption, misunderstanding, overreach, and privacy costs. This survey gives an operational definition centered on initiative and formulates the problem as a partially observable sequential decision process constrained by authorization and risk. The formulation represents timing, content, and delivery within one structured action, while making explicit the option value of waiting, the decision value of questions, and feedback-induced state changes. On this basis, we organize existing methods along one decision pipeline (state and need estimation, intervention gating, action construction, and feedback adaptation) and describe prescribed, predictive, model based, and return optimizing mechanisms as nonexclusive policy-construction components. We further normalize decision units and three-axis evidence descriptors across streaming dialogue, screen, video, software-engineering, and human-agent collaboration resources, and formalize metrics for triggering, timing, calibration, user burden, safety, and policy value. The synthesis shows why offline classification performance alone does not predict deployment benefit and why long-term memory is not a defining condition of proactivity. Reliable proactive service instead requires calibrated incremental intervention value, verifiable authorization, recoverable execution, and counterfactual evidence.

The recent phenomenal success of language models has reinvigorated machine learning research, and large sequence models such as transformers are being applied to a variety of domains. One important problem class that has remained relatively elusive however is purposeful adaptive behavior. Currently there is a common perception that sequence models "lack the understanding of the cause and effect of their actions" leading them to draw incorrect inferences due to auto-suggestive delusions. In this report we explain where this mismatch originates, and show that it can be resolved by treating actions as causal interventions. Finally, we show that in supervised learning, one can teach a system to condition or intervene on data by training with factual and counterfactual error signals respectively.

A commonly used heuristic in RL is experience replay (e.g.~lin1993reinforcement, mnih2015human), in which a learner stores and re-uses past trajectories as if they were sampled online. In this work, we initiate a rigorous study of this heuristic in the setting of tabular Q-learning. We provide a convergence rate guarantee, and discuss how it compares to the convergence of Q-learning depending on important parameters such as the frequency and number of replay iterations. We also provide theoretical evidence showing when we might expect this heuristic to strictly improve performance, by introducing and analyzing a simple class of MDPs. Finally, we provide some experiments to support our theoretical findings.

Typed decision models answer a declared question without generating text: a decision head returns a probability for each of the declared options in a single forward pass. A single pass is fast, intuitive System 1 thinking. We study what lies between one pass and generated reasoning: looping, in which the same layers are recursively applied several times before one typed readout. Each loop lets the model revise its hidden state before it commits to an answer, without generating a token; we call this System 1.5 thinking. We propose SanSi, which turns a pre-trained looped language model into a typed decision model. The option probabilities are read after every loop, and every loop is trained with a proper scoring rule, so that one model serves every budget from one loop to eight in a single run. On 10,027 test decisions from 59 sources, SanSi reaches 72.0% accuracy: 13.5 points above a non-looped model of the same shape trained with the same recipe, 5.3 points above a newer non-looped model of its size, and 1.8 points below one with three times the parameters. On two depth-controlled tasks, loops extend the solvable depth beyond the depths seen in training, where the larger single-pass model fails. Used as the judge for policy optimization with reinforcement learning, without gold answers, SanSi raises the generator's F1 by 7.7 points.

Mathematical reasoning---a core ability within human intelligence---presents some unique challenges as a domain: we do not come to understand and solve mathematical problems primarily on the back of experience and evidence, but on the basis of inferring, learning, and exploiting laws, axioms, and symbol manipulation rules. In this paper, we present a new challenge for the evaluation (and eventually the design) of neural architectures and similar system, developing a task suite of mathematics problems involving sequential questions and answers in a free-form textual input/output format. The structured nature of the mathematics domain, covering arithmetic, algebra, probability and calculus, enables the construction of training and test splits designed to clearly illuminate the capabilities and failure-modes of different architectures, as well as evaluate their ability to compose and relate knowledge and learned processes. Having described the data generation process and its potential future expansions, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of models from two broad classes of the most powerful sequence-to-sequence architectures and find notable differences in their ability to resolve mathematical problems and generalize their knowledge.

We consider a sequential decision making problem where the agent faces the environment characterized by the stochastic discrete events and seeks an optimal intervention policy such that its long-term reward is maximized. This problem exists ubiquitously in social media, finance and health informatics but is rarely investigated by the conventional research in reinforcement learning. To this end, we present a novel framework of the model-based reinforcement learning where the agent's actions and observations are asynchronous stochastic discrete events occurring in continuous-time. We model the dynamics of the environment by Hawkes process with external intervention control term and develop an algorithm to embed such process in the Bellman equation which guides the direction of the value gradient. We demonstrate the superiority of our method in both synthetic simulator and real-world problem.

In multi-task reinforcement learning (RL) under Markov decision processes (MDPs), the presence of shared latent structures among multiple MDPs has been shown to yield significant benefits to the sample efficiency compared to single-task RL. In this paper, we investigate whether such a benefit can extend to more general sequential decision making problems, such as partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) and more general predictive state representations (PSRs). The main challenge here is that the large and complex model space makes it hard to identify what types of common latent structure of multi-task PSRs can reduce the model complexity and improve sample efficiency. To this end, we posit a joint model class for tasks and use the notion of eta-bracketing number to quantify its complexity; this number also serves as a general metric to capture the similarity of tasks and thus determines the benefit of multi-task over single-task RL. We first study upstream multi-task learning over PSRs, in which all tasks share the same observation and action spaces. We propose a provably efficient algorithm UMT-PSR for finding near-optimal policies for all PSRs, and demonstrate that the advantage of multi-task learning manifests if the joint model class of PSRs has a smaller eta-bracketing number compared to that of individual single-task learning. We also provide several example multi-task PSRs with small eta-bracketing numbers, which reap the benefits of multi-task learning. We further investigate downstream learning, in which the agent needs to learn a new target task that shares some commonalities with the upstream tasks via a similarity constraint. By exploiting the learned PSRs from the upstream, we develop a sample-efficient algorithm that provably finds a near-optimal policy.

We consider the problem of preference based reinforcement learning (PbRL), where, unlike traditional reinforcement learning, an agent receives feedback only in terms of a 1 bit (0/1) preference over a trajectory pair instead of absolute rewards for them. The success of the traditional RL framework crucially relies on the underlying agent-reward model, which, however, depends on how accurately a system designer can express an appropriate reward function and often a non-trivial task. The main novelty of our framework is the ability to learn from preference-based trajectory feedback that eliminates the need to hand-craft numeric reward models. This paper sets up a formal framework for the PbRL problem with non-markovian rewards, where the trajectory preferences are encoded by a generalized linear model of dimension d. Assuming the transition model is known, we then propose an algorithm with almost optimal regret guarantee of mathcal{O}left( SH d log (T / delta) T right). We further, extend the above algorithm to the case of unknown transition dynamics, and provide an algorithm with near optimal regret guarantee mathcal{O}((d + H^2 + |S|)dT +|mathcal{S||A|TH} ). To the best of our knowledge, our work is one of the first to give tight regret guarantees for preference based RL problems with trajectory preferences.

In many applications of Reinforcement Learning (RL), it is critically important that the algorithm performs safely, such that instantaneous hard constraints are satisfied at each step, and unsafe states and actions are avoided. However, existing algorithms for ''safe'' RL are often designed under constraints that either require expected cumulative costs to be bounded or assume all states are safe. Thus, such algorithms could violate instantaneous hard constraints and traverse unsafe states (and actions) in practice. Therefore, in this paper, we develop the first near-optimal safe RL algorithm for episodic Markov Decision Processes with unsafe states and actions under instantaneous hard constraints and the linear mixture model. It not only achieves a regret O(d H^3 sqrt{dK}{Delta_c}) that tightly matches the state-of-the-art regret in the setting with only unsafe actions and nearly matches that in the unconstrained setting, but is also safe at each step, where d is the feature-mapping dimension, K is the number of episodes, H is the number of steps in each episode, and Delta_c is a safety-related parameter. We also provide a lower bound Omega(max{dH K, H{Delta_c^2}}), which indicates that the dependency on Delta_c is necessary. Further, both our algorithm design and regret analysis involve several novel ideas, which may be of independent interest.

We study the problem of Non-Stationary Reinforcement Learning (NS-RL) without prior knowledge about the system's non-stationarity. A state-of-the-art, black-box algorithm, known as MASTER, is considered, with a focus on identifying the conditions under which it can achieve its stated goals. Specifically, we prove that MASTER's non-stationarity detection mechanism is not triggered for practical choices of horizon, leading to performance akin to a random restarting algorithm. Moreover, we show that the regret bound for MASTER, while being order optimal, stays above the worst-case linear regret until unreasonably large values of the horizon. To validate these observations, MASTER is tested for the special case of piecewise stationary multi-armed bandits, along with methods that employ random restarting, and others that use quickest change detection to restart. A simple, order optimal random restarting algorithm, that has prior knowledge of the non-stationarity is proposed as a baseline. The behavior of the MASTER algorithm is validated in simulations, and it is shown that methods employing quickest change detection are more robust and consistently outperform MASTER and other random restarting approaches.

In machine learning, the notion of multi-armed bandits refers to a class of online learning problems, in which an agent is supposed to simultaneously explore and exploit a given set of choice alternatives in the course of a sequential decision process. In the standard setting, the agent learns from stochastic feedback in the form of real-valued rewards. In many applications, however, numerical reward signals are not readily available -- instead, only weaker information is provided, in particular relative preferences in the form of qualitative comparisons between pairs of alternatives. This observation has motivated the study of variants of the multi-armed bandit problem, in which more general representations are used both for the type of feedback to learn from and the target of prediction. The aim of this paper is to provide a survey of the state of the art in this field, referred to as preference-based multi-armed bandits or dueling bandits. To this end, we provide an overview of problems that have been considered in the literature as well as methods for tackling them. Our taxonomy is mainly based on the assumptions made by these methods about the data-generating process and, related to this, the properties of the preference-based feedback.

We introduce StartLux-Decision, decision models from 0.8B to 27B parameters that combine efficient single-pass prediction with adaptive, confidence-guided reasoning. The Instant models use bidirectional attention in full-attention layers to improve decision accuracy while keeping single-pass inference. The AutoThink models invoke explicit reasoning for uncertain decisions and answer confident cases directly. A three-stage training pipeline establishes shared decision capabilities, specializes the two variants, and equips AutoThink with reasoning through reasoning supervision and reinforcement learning. We introduce Reinforcement Learning for Calibrated Deliberative Decisions (RLCD^2), which uses a frozen model and proper scoring rules to reward improvements in decision probability quality and applies a soft penalty to overlong reasoning traces. RLCD^2 raises the share of reasoning traces that terminate within the generation limit by up to 48 percentage points and cuts average reasoning length by up to 65%, while largely preserving decision accuracy. On the public subset of Decision Index 0.3, the Instant models outperform the strongest evaluated comparable-scale open-weight decision models by 7.4-16.9 points, and the 27B AutoThink model reaches 73.4. We also introduce DecisionPivot, a programmatically verifiable benchmark of computational decisions built from contrast pairs that differ in a single answer-changing detail. On DecisionPivot, AutoThink outperforms its Instant counterparts by 11.5-18.4 points in pair accuracy and leads among evaluated systems. The models run on vLLM, llama.cpp and MLX, with quantized variants for lower memory use.

We propose MDP-GapE, a new trajectory-based Monte-Carlo Tree Search algorithm for planning in a Markov Decision Process in which transitions have a finite support. We prove an upper bound on the number of calls to the generative models needed for MDP-GapE to identify a near-optimal action with high probability. This problem-dependent sample complexity result is expressed in terms of the sub-optimality gaps of the state-action pairs that are visited during exploration. Our experiments reveal that MDP-GapE is also effective in practice, in contrast with other algorithms with sample complexity guarantees in the fixed-confidence setting, that are mostly theoretical.

Recent advancements in large language models have significantly improved their reasoning abilities, particularly through techniques involving search and backtracking. Backtracking naturally scales test-time compute by enabling sequential, linearized exploration via long chain-of-thought (CoT) generation. However, this is not the only strategy for scaling test-time compute: parallel sampling with best-of-n selection provides an alternative that generates diverse solutions simultaneously. Despite the growing adoption of sequential search, its advantages over parallel sampling--especially under a fixed compute budget remain poorly understood. In this paper, we systematically compare these two approaches on two challenging reasoning tasks: CountDown and Sudoku. Surprisingly, we find that sequential search underperforms parallel sampling on CountDown but outperforms it on Sudoku, suggesting that backtracking is not universally beneficial. We identify two factors that can cause backtracking to degrade performance: (1) training on fixed search traces can lock models into suboptimal strategies, and (2) explicit CoT supervision can discourage "implicit" (non-verbalized) reasoning. Extending our analysis to reinforcement learning (RL), we show that models with backtracking capabilities benefit significantly from RL fine-tuning, while models without backtracking see limited, mixed gains. Together, these findings challenge the assumption that backtracking universally enhances LLM reasoning, instead revealing a complex interaction between task structure, training data, model scale, and learning paradigm.

Many resource management problems require sequential decision-making under uncertainty, where the only uncertainty affecting the decision outcomes are exogenous variables outside the control of the decision-maker. We model these problems as Exo-MDPs (Markov Decision Processes with Exogenous Inputs) and design a class of data-efficient algorithms for them termed Hindsight Learning (HL). Our HL algorithms achieve data efficiency by leveraging a key insight: having samples of the exogenous variables, past decisions can be revisited in hindsight to infer counterfactual consequences that can accelerate policy improvements. We compare HL against classic baselines in the multi-secretary and airline revenue management problems. We also scale our algorithms to a business-critical cloud resource management problem -- allocating Virtual Machines (VMs) to physical machines, and simulate their performance with real datasets from a large public cloud provider. We find that HL algorithms outperform domain-specific heuristics, as well as state-of-the-art reinforcement learning methods.

Reinforcement learning (RL) tasks are typically framed as Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), assuming that decisions are made at fixed time intervals. However, many applications of great importance, including healthcare, do not satisfy this assumption, yet they are commonly modelled as MDPs after an artificial reshaping of the data. In addition, most healthcare (and similar) problems are offline by nature, allowing for only retrospective studies. To address both challenges, we begin by discussing the Semi-MDP (SMDP) framework, which formally handles actions of variable timings. We next present a formal way to apply SMDP modifications to nearly any given value-based offline RL method. We use this theory to introduce three SMDP-based offline RL algorithms, namely, SDQN, SDDQN, and SBCQ. We then experimentally demonstrate that only these SMDP-based algorithms learn the optimal policy in variable-time environments, whereas their MDP counterparts do not. Finally, we apply our new algorithms to a real-world offline dataset pertaining to warfarin dosing for stroke prevention and demonstrate similar results.

Foundation models supply reinforcement learning (RL) with priors that mitigate its longstanding weaknesses in sample efficiency and transfer, but their token-by-token generation makes queries sequential and costly. Jev, a recently released decision model, generates nothing and returns calibrated, typed answers in a single forward pass. Existing work studies foundation models in RL either as models to be trained or as generators to be prompted, and Jev belongs to neither category, having so far served only as a black box in single domains. How well such a model decides on its own in RL environments, and how it can improve RL as a component of training, therefore remain unaddressed. To this end, in this paper we first examine the requirements that the objects of an RL system place on the answers they consume, and establish that Jev can fulfill all of them except the cardinal use of a value function. The remaining objects form positions that admit several roles each. We then construct algorithms that employ Jev at three of these positions, as a reference policy, an exploration judge, and a replay rater, to improve sample efficiency, exploration, and learning performance. Across nine MiniGrid tasks and three Atari games, training with Jev outperforms a standard RL learner, including where the learner makes no progress alone, while the model itself remains untrained. To our knowledge, we present the first use of Jev within the RL learning process and establish a frozen decision model as a usable component of RL training, inviting further exploration of how Jev and other advanced decision models can improve RL.

System one models enable direct, low-latency decision-making. Yet recent practice of predicting an answer from serialized text does not, by itself, respect the structure of a decision problem. We argue that current designs underemphasize four important structural requirements. (i) null-aware: Models should distinguish answer absence from uncertainty among candidates; (ii) permutation-invariant: Reordering alternatives should not change the decision; (iii) option-scalable: Growing candidate sets should not require redefining the output space; (iv) cacheable: Request-independent computation over recurring alternatives should be reusable across requests. We introduce Jeva, a decision-native architecture that addresses these requirements jointly. A shared encoder independently represents the request and each option, while a compact decision stack refines only the request state against immutable option memory. Symmetric aggregation yields permutation-equivariant probabilities; shared scoring accommodates variable-size candidate sets. A separate coverage estimate distinguishes answer absence from candidate competition, enabling explicit null outcomes. Request-independent option representations and layer projections support reuse across newly assembled sets. These mechanisms unify Choice, Noul, and Score outputs. Across evaluations, Jeva combines strong typed-decision performance with near-perfect null detection and no decision flips under any tested permutations. It scales to thousands of candidates and substantially reduces latency through cross-request reuse without changing decisions.

Delayed outcomes are ubiquitous in online experimentation: treatment can affect whether an outcome occurs, when it occurs, and its realized value. To accommodate staggered entry while remaining robust to environmental nonstationarity and unit-level heterogeneity, we adopt a design-based perspective and target the sample cumulative reward in each arm as a function of calendar time. Our confidence sequences allow practitioners to continuously monitor the counterfactual incremental reward, such as revenue, that would have been realized by calendar time t had all entered units been assigned to treatment rather than control. The main technical challenge is the choice of design-based filtration, complicated by the presence of asynchronous potential outcome times. We show that the IPW treatment-effect estimation error is not a martingale with respect to any filtration, while each arm-specific IPW estimation error is a martingale with respect to a carefully chosen arm-specific event-time filtration. We therefore construct a confidence sequence for the treatment effect by combining two arm-level confidence sequences with a union bound, and further demonstrate that this can outperform the traditional design-based variance upper bound. Finally, we characterize the class of augmentations for which the per-arm AIPW estimation error remains a martingale.

All biological and artificial agents must learn and make decisions given limits on their ability to process information. As such, a general theory of adaptive behavior should be able to account for the complex interactions between an agent's learning history, decisions, and capacity constraints. Recent work in computer science has begun to clarify the principles that shape these dynamics by bridging ideas from reinforcement learning, Bayesian decision-making, and rate-distortion theory. This body of work provides an account of capacity-limited Bayesian reinforcement learning, a unifying normative framework for modeling the effect of processing constraints on learning and action selection. Here, we provide an accessible review of recent algorithms and theoretical results in this setting, paying special attention to how these ideas can be applied to studying questions in the cognitive and behavioral sciences.

We study one-sided and α-correct sequential hypothesis testing for data generated by an ergodic, finite-state Markov chain. The null hypothesis is that the unknown transition matrix belongs to a prescribed set P of stochastic matrices, and the alternative corresponds to a disjoint set Q. We establish a non-asymptotic instance-dependent lower bound on the expected stopping time of any valid sequential test under the alternative, which is asymptotically tight. Our novel analysis improves the existing lower bounds, which are either asymptotic or provably sub-optimal in this setting. Our lower bound incorporates both the stationary distribution and the transition structure induced by the unknown Markov chain. We further propose an optimal test whose expected stopping time matches this lower bound asymptotically as αto 0. We illustrate the usefulness of our framework through applications to sequential detection of model misspecification in Markov Chain Monte Carlo and to testing structural properties, such as the linearity of transition dynamics, in Markov decision processes. Our findings yield a sharp and general characterization of optimal sequential testing procedures under Markovian dependence.

While machine learning has advanced through massive parallelization, we identify a critical blind spot: some problems are fundamentally sequential. These "inherently serial" problems-from mathematical reasoning to physical simulations to sequential decision-making-require dependent computational steps that cannot be parallelized. Drawing from complexity theory, we formalize this distinction and demonstrate that current parallel-centric architectures face fundamental limitations on such tasks. We argue that recognizing the serial nature of computation holds profound implications on machine learning, model design, hardware development. As AI tackles increasingly complex reasoning, deliberately scaling serial computation-not just parallel computation-is essential for continued progress.

In many real-world settings, a centralized decision-maker must repeatedly allocate finite resources to a population over multiple time steps. Individuals who receive a resource derive some stochastic utility; to characterize the population-level effects of an allocation, the expected individual utilities are then aggregated using a social welfare function (SWF). We formalize this setting and present a general confidence sequence framework for SWF-based online learning and inference, valid for any monotonic, concave, and Lipschitz-continuous SWF. Our key insight is that monotonicity alone suffices to lift confidence sequences from individual utilities to anytime-valid bounds on optimal welfare. Building on this foundation, we propose SWF-UCB, a SWF-agnostic online learning algorithm that achieves near-optimal O(n+nkT) regret (for k resources distributed among n individuals at each of T time steps). We instantiate our framework on three normatively distinct SWF families: Weighted Power Mean, Kolm, and Gini, providing bespoke oracle algorithms for each. Experiments confirm T scaling and reveal rich interactions between k and SWF parameters. This framework naturally supports inference applications such as sequential hypothesis testing, optimal stopping, and policy evaluation.

We present a model inspired by the Global Workspace Theory that integrates specialized modules to perform a sequential reasoning task. A controller selectively routes information between modules through the workspace using a gating mechanism. This approach allows the model to chain operations by iteratively broadcasting information between specialized domains, mimicking System-2 reasoning. We evaluate the model's performance on a simple addition task, where two addends must be summed. The task can be solved by routing information sequentially through an Input module, an Increment module (multiple times), and finally an Output module. We consider two implementations of this system with increasing complexity. First, using hand-designed modules operating on one-hot digit representations, the controller (a LSTM recurrent network) learns to select the appropriate modules (input, increment, output) in the appropriate sequence. Second, we replace the hand-designed modules with learned representation modules for MNIST images and an increment module trained on the task objectives; here again, the controller learns the appropriate sequential module selection to solve the task. Finally, we show that the Global Workspace model, while having fewer parameters, outperforms LSTMs and Transformers when tested on unseen addition operations (both interpolations and extrapolations of addition operations seen during training). Our results highlight the potential of architectures inspired by the Global Workspace Theory to enhance deep learning's reasoning capabilities.

Reinforcement Learning and recently Deep Reinforcement Learning are popular methods for solving sequential decision making problems modeled as Markov Decision Processes. RL modeling of a problem and selecting algorithms and hyper-parameters require careful considerations as different configurations may entail completely different performances. These considerations are mainly the task of RL experts; however, RL is progressively becoming popular in other fields where the researchers and system designers are not RL experts. Besides, many modeling decisions, such as defining state and action space, size of batches and frequency of batch updating, and number of timesteps are typically made manually. For these reasons, automating different components of RL framework is of great importance and it has attracted much attention in recent years. Automated RL provides a framework in which different components of RL including MDP modeling, algorithm selection and hyper-parameter optimization are modeled and defined automatically. In this article, we explore the literature and present recent work that can be used in automated RL. Moreover, we discuss the challenges, open questions and research directions in AutoRL.

This paper addresses the general problem of reinforcement learning (RL) in partially observable environments. In 2013, our large RL recurrent neural networks (RNNs) learned from scratch to drive simulated cars from high-dimensional video input. However, real brains are more powerful in many ways. In particular, they learn a predictive model of their initially unknown environment, and somehow use it for abstract (e.g., hierarchical) planning and reasoning. Guided by algorithmic information theory, we describe RNN-based AIs (RNNAIs) designed to do the same. Such an RNNAI can be trained on never-ending sequences of tasks, some of them provided by the user, others invented by the RNNAI itself in a curious, playful fashion, to improve its RNN-based world model. Unlike our previous model-building RNN-based RL machines dating back to 1990, the RNNAI learns to actively query its model for abstract reasoning and planning and decision making, essentially "learning to think." The basic ideas of this report can be applied to many other cases where one RNN-like system exploits the algorithmic information content of another. They are taken from a grant proposal submitted in Fall 2014, and also explain concepts such as "mirror neurons." Experimental results will be described in separate papers.

In most real-world applications of artificial intelligence, the distributions of the data and the goals of the learners tend to change over time. The Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning framework, which underpins most machine learning algorithms, fails to account for dynamic data distributions and evolving objectives, often resulting in suboptimal performance. Prospective learning is a recently introduced mathematical framework that overcomes some of these limitations. We build on this framework to present preliminary results that improve the algorithm and numerical results, and extend prospective learning to sequential decision-making scenarios, specifically foraging. Code is available at: https://github.com/neurodata/prolearn2.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) introduce new opportunities for safety monitoring through their Chain of Thought (CoT) reasoning. However, CoT is not always faithful to the model's final output, undermining its reliability as a monitoring tool. To address this, we investigate the hidden representations of LRMs to determine whether future behavior can be predicted from prompt and CoT representations. By evaluating a probe at each generated token, we construct a probe trajectory, the continuous evolution of a concept's probability across the reasoning process. We find that future model behavior is more distinguishable when examined over the full trajectory than from a single static prediction. To characterize these temporal dynamics, we extract signal-processing features that capture volatility, trend, and steady-state behavior, significantly improving the separation of future model states. We also present two methodological insights. First, template-based training data achieves near-parity with dynamically generated model responses, eliminating the need for a costly initial inference and labeling. Second, the choice of pooling operation is critical: average-pooling and last-token methods collapse to near-random performance, while max-pooling achieves up to 95% AUROC and yields stable probe trajectories. Using four datasets and four reasoning models across the domains of safety and mathematics, we demonstrate that trajectory features encode task-specific dynamics that improve outcome separability. These findings establish probe trajectories as a complementary framework for monitoring LRM behavior. Warning: This article contains potentially harmful content.

In many real-world sequential decision-making problems, an action does not immediately reflect on the feedback and spreads its effects over a long time frame. For instance, in online advertising, investing in a platform produces an instantaneous increase of awareness, but the actual reward, i.e., a conversion, might occur far in the future. Furthermore, whether a conversion takes place depends on: how fast the awareness grows, its vanishing effects, and the synergy or interference with other advertising platforms. Previous work has investigated the Multi-Armed Bandit framework with the possibility of delayed and aggregated feedback, without a particular structure on how an action propagates in the future, disregarding possible dynamical effects. In this paper, we introduce a novel setting, the Dynamical Linear Bandits (DLB), an extension of the linear bandits characterized by a hidden state. When an action is performed, the learner observes a noisy reward whose mean is a linear function of the hidden state and of the action. Then, the hidden state evolves according to linear dynamics, affected by the performed action too. We start by introducing the setting, discussing the notion of optimal policy, and deriving an expected regret lower bound. Then, we provide an optimistic regret minimization algorithm, Dynamical Linear Upper Confidence Bound (DynLin-UCB), that suffers an expected regret of order mathcal{O} Big( d sqrt{T}{(1-rho)^{3/2}} Big), where rho is a measure of the stability of the system, and d is the dimension of the action vector. Finally, we conduct a numerical validation on a synthetic environment and on real-world data to show the effectiveness of DynLin-UCB in comparison with several baselines.

We explore the relations between the zeta distribution and algorithmic information theory via a new model of the transfer learning problem. The program distribution is approximated by a zeta distribution with parameter near 1. We model the training sequence as a stochastic process. We analyze the upper temporal bound for learning a training sequence and its entropy rates, assuming an oracle for the transfer learning problem. We argue from empirical evidence that power-law models are suitable for natural processes. Four sequence models are proposed. Random typing model is like no-free lunch where transfer learning does not work. Zeta process independently samples programs from the zeta distribution. A model of common sub-programs inspired by genetics uses a database of sub-programs. An evolutionary zeta process samples mutations from Zeta distribution. The analysis of stochastic processes inspired by evolution suggest that AI may be feasible in nature, countering no-free lunch sort of arguments.

Motivated by the operational problems in click and collect systems, such as curbside pickup programs, we study a joint admission control and capacity allocation problem. We consider a system where arriving customers have preferred service delivery times and gauge the service quality based on the service provider's ability to complete the service as close as possible to the preferred time. Customers can be of different priority classes, and their priority may increase as they wait longer in the queue. The service provider can reject customers upon their arrival if the system is overloaded or outsource the service (alternatively work overtime) when the capacity is not enough. The service provider's goal is to find the minimum-cost admission and capacity allocation policy to dynamically decide when to serve and whom to serve. We model this problem as a Markov Decision Process. Our structural results partially characterize a set of suboptimal solutions, and we develop solution methods using these results. We also develop a problem-specific approximation method that is based on state aggregation to overcome the computational challenges. We present extensive computational results and discuss the impact of problem parameters on the optimal policy.

Decision models often score a variable-sized set of candidate actions encoded in a single sequence. This setting is increasingly relevant for System 1 components inside generative systems, where candidates may be proposed or ordered differently across runs. Standard causal cross-encoding is expressive, but it can make a candidate's score depend on serialization order rather than on the underlying decision problem. We introduce candidate-independent block-causal attention, which preserves causal computation within the shared context and each candidate while blocking cross-candidate information flow and resetting candidate positions. We compare this architecture with standard causal attention and complementary invariant baselines across Gemma 3 1B, Qwen3 1.7B, and Qwen3 4B backbones. Candidate-independent attention consistently reduces permutation sensitivity while retaining competitive decision quality; ablations indicate that candidate isolation is the primary source of the effect, with position resetting completing the intended symmetry. A larger Qwen3-4B study further examines the behavior of the proposed architecture with substantially more training data. Code is available at the https://github.com/guyAmit/ci-decision-models{blue{project repository}}, and the https://huggingface.co/Guy-Amit/qwen3-4b-ci-decision-4096-poc{blue{Qwen3-4B model artifact}} is available on Hugging Face.

Artificial intelligence commonly refers to the science and engineering of artificial systems that can carry out tasks generally associated with requiring aspects of human intelligence, such as playing games, translating languages, and driving cars. In recent years, there have been exciting advances in learning-based, data-driven approaches towards AI, and machine learning and deep learning have enabled computer systems to perceive the world in unprecedented ways. Reinforcement learning has enabled breakthroughs in complex games such as Go and challenging robotics tasks such as quadrupedal locomotion. A key aspect of intelligence is to not only make predictions, but reason about the uncertainty in these predictions, and to consider this uncertainty when making decisions. This is what this manuscript on "Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence" is about. The first part covers probabilistic approaches to machine learning. We discuss the differentiation between "epistemic" uncertainty due to lack of data and "aleatoric" uncertainty, which is irreducible and stems, e.g., from noisy observations and outcomes. We discuss concrete approaches towards probabilistic inference and modern approaches to efficient approximate inference. The second part of the manuscript is about taking uncertainty into account in sequential decision tasks. We consider active learning and Bayesian optimization -- approaches that collect data by proposing experiments that are informative for reducing the epistemic uncertainty. We then consider reinforcement learning and modern deep RL approaches that use neural network function approximation. We close by discussing modern approaches in model-based RL, which harness epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty to guide exploration, while also reasoning about safety.

Event sequences are chains of random events, each described by heterogeneous (numerical and categorical) features. The problem of event sequence forecasting occurs in finance, healthcare, business process intelligence, and other fields. In this work, we study multi-horizon forecasting of event sequences as a conditional generative modeling problem. We evaluate forecasts not only for prediction accuracy, but also for distributional realism. To this end, we present a benchmark comprising metrics for both quality aspects, strong statistical baselines, recent models adapted from adjacent fields, and curated real-world datasets. Careful evaluation reveals that no method excels at both accuracy and realism, highlighting a fundamental trade-off between the two. Finally, we introduce Wasserstein BaryBooster, an algorithm that aggregates samples from a realism-strong diffusion model into a state-of-the-art predictor, demonstrating that distributional realism can be converted into prediction accuracy. Code is available at https://github.com/xaosina/event-sequence-forecasting.

Recent breakthroughs in the development of agents to solve challenging sequential decision making problems such as Go, StarCraft, or DOTA, have relied on both simulated environments and large-scale datasets. However, progress on this research has been hindered by the scarcity of open-sourced datasets and the prohibitive computational cost to work with them. Here we present the NetHack Learning Dataset (NLD), a large and highly-scalable dataset of trajectories from the popular game of NetHack, which is both extremely challenging for current methods and very fast to run. NLD consists of three parts: 10 billion state transitions from 1.5 million human trajectories collected on the NAO public NetHack server from 2009 to 2020; 3 billion state-action-score transitions from 100,000 trajectories collected from the symbolic bot winner of the NetHack Challenge 2021; and, accompanying code for users to record, load and stream any collection of such trajectories in a highly compressed form. We evaluate a wide range of existing algorithms including online and offline RL, as well as learning from demonstrations, showing that significant research advances are needed to fully leverage large-scale datasets for challenging sequential decision making tasks.

We present a general convergent class of reinforcement learning algorithms that is founded on two distinct principles: (1) mapping value estimates to a different space using arbitrary functions from a broad class, and (2) linearly decomposing the reward signal into multiple channels. The first principle enables incorporating specific properties into the value estimator that can enhance learning. The second principle, on the other hand, allows for the value function to be represented as a composition of multiple utility functions. This can be leveraged for various purposes, e.g. dealing with highly varying reward scales, incorporating a priori knowledge about the sources of reward, and ensemble learning. Combining the two principles yields a general blueprint for instantiating convergent algorithms by orchestrating diverse mapping functions over multiple reward channels. This blueprint generalizes and subsumes algorithms such as Q-Learning, Log Q-Learning, and Q-Decomposition. In addition, our convergence proof for this general class relaxes certain required assumptions in some of these algorithms. Based on our theory, we discuss several interesting configurations as special cases. Finally, to illustrate the potential of the design space that our theory opens up, we instantiate a particular algorithm and evaluate its performance on the Atari suite.

We consider the problem of automatic generation of control strategies for robotic vehicles given a set of high-level mission specifications, such as "Vehicle x must eventually visit a target region and then return to a base," "Regions A and B must be periodically surveyed," or "None of the vehicles can enter an unsafe region." We focus on instances when all of the given specifications cannot be reached simultaneously due to their incompatibility and/or environmental constraints. We aim to find the least-violating control strategy while considering different priorities of satisfying different parts of the mission. Formally, we consider the missions given in the form of linear temporal logic formulas, each of which is assigned a reward that is earned when the formula is satisfied. Leveraging ideas from the automata-based model checking, we propose an algorithm for finding an optimal control strategy that maximizes the sum of rewards earned if this control strategy is applied. We demonstrate the proposed algorithm on an illustrative case study.

Sequential recommender systems have become increasingly important in real-world applications that model user behavior sequences to predict their preferences. However, existing sequential recommendation methods predominantly rely on non-reasoning paradigms, which may limit the model's computational capacity and result in suboptimal recommendation performance. To address these limitations, we present LARES, a novel and scalable LAtent REasoning framework for Sequential recommendation that enhances model's representation capabilities through increasing the computation density of parameters by depth-recurrent latent reasoning. Our proposed approach employs a recurrent architecture that allows flexible expansion of reasoning depth without increasing parameter complexity, thereby effectively capturing dynamic and intricate user interest patterns. A key difference of LARES lies in refining all input tokens at each implicit reasoning step to improve the computation utilization. To fully unlock the model's reasoning potential, we design a two-phase training strategy: (1) Self-supervised pre-training (SPT) with dual alignment objectives; (2) Reinforcement post-training (RPT). During the first phase, we introduce trajectory-level alignment and step-level alignment objectives, which enable the model to learn recommendation-oriented latent reasoning patterns without requiring supplementary annotated data. The subsequent phase utilizes reinforcement learning (RL) to harness the model's exploratory ability, further refining its reasoning capabilities. Comprehensive experiments on real-world benchmarks demonstrate our framework's superior performance. Notably, LARES exhibits seamless compatibility with existing advanced models, further improving their recommendation performance. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/LARES-E458/.

You are a robot and you live in a Markov decision process (MDP) with a finite or an infinite number of transitions from state-action to next states. You got brains and so you plan before you act. Luckily, your roboparents equipped you with a generative model to do some Monte-Carlo planning. The world is waiting for you and you have no time to waste. You want your planning to be efficient. Sample-efficient. Indeed, you want to exploit the possible structure of the MDP by exploring only a subset of states reachable by following near-optimal policies. You want guarantees on sample complexity that depend on a measure of the quantity of near-optimal states. You want something, that is an extension of Monte-Carlo sampling (for estimating an expectation) to problems that alternate maximization (over actions) and expectation (over next states). But you do not want to StOP with exponential running time, you want something simple to implement and computationally efficient. You want it all and you want it now. You want TrailBlazer.

We consider reinforcement learning in an environment modeled by an episodic, finite, stage-dependent Markov decision process of horizon H with S states, and A actions. The performance of an agent is measured by the regret after interacting with the environment for T episodes. We propose an optimistic posterior sampling algorithm for reinforcement learning (OPSRL), a simple variant of posterior sampling that only needs a number of posterior samples logarithmic in H, S, A, and T per state-action pair. For OPSRL we guarantee a high-probability regret bound of order at most mathcal{O}(H^3SAT) ignoring polylog(HSAT) terms. The key novel technical ingredient is a new sharp anti-concentration inequality for linear forms which may be of independent interest. Specifically, we extend the normal approximation-based lower bound for Beta distributions by Alfers and Dinges [1984] to Dirichlet distributions. Our bound matches the lower bound of order Ω(H^3SAT), thereby answering the open problems raised by Agrawal and Jia [2017b] for the episodic setting.

Sequential decision making problems, such as structured prediction, robotic control, and game playing, require a combination of planning policies and generalisation of those plans. In this paper, we present Expert Iteration (ExIt), a novel reinforcement learning algorithm which decomposes the problem into separate planning and generalisation tasks. Planning new policies is performed by tree search, while a deep neural network generalises those plans. Subsequently, tree search is improved by using the neural network policy to guide search, increasing the strength of new plans. In contrast, standard deep Reinforcement Learning algorithms rely on a neural network not only to generalise plans, but to discover them too. We show that ExIt outperforms REINFORCE for training a neural network to play the board game Hex, and our final tree search agent, trained tabula rasa, defeats MoHex 1.0, the most recent Olympiad Champion player to be publicly released.

Sequential learning with feedback graphs is a natural extension of the multi-armed bandit problem where the problem is equipped with an underlying graph structure that provides additional information - playing an action reveals the losses of all the neighbors of the action. This problem was introduced by mannor2011 and received considerable attention in recent years. It is generally stated in the literature that the minimax regret rate for this problem is of order alpha T, where alpha is the independence number of the graph, and T is the time horizon. However, this is proven only when the number of rounds T is larger than alpha^3, which poses a significant restriction for the usability of this result in large graphs. In this paper, we define a new quantity R^*, called the problem complexity, and prove that the minimax regret is proportional to R^* for any graph and time horizon T. Introducing an intricate exploration strategy, we define the \mainAlgorithm algorithm that achieves the minimax optimal regret bound and becomes the first provably optimal algorithm for this setting, even if T is smaller than alpha^3.

Decision models answer typed questions about an input with one probability per option, computed in a single forward pass without generating text. Like the fast System 1 of dual-process theory, they answer at once, but their depth is fixed at training time, so they spend the same computation on easy and hard questions. Models that reason in generated text can think longer, but they pay for every extra step in decoded tokens. We present LEV, a decision model that thinks deeper by rerunning its layers in a loop instead of generating tokens. LEV builds on a language model pretrained as a loop, reads the options after every loop step and trains all steps jointly, so one checkpoint can answer at any depth. On three looped backbones, accuracy rises with depth on the same weights, mostly on hard questions, and a 2.6B LEV goes from 63.2% at depth one to 76.2% at depth four on JevBench. On-demand depth, set per question by a small stopper with a threshold fitted on unlabelled requests, saves 15% to 24% of the computation at a cost of under one accuracy point, level with or slightly above a fixed mix of depths. On a locked test set, the 1.4B and 3B models are 5.4 to 8.8 points more accurate than dense (non-looped) models and cascades of the same latency below 50 ms.